The Toronto Blue Jays open up a three-game set on the road against the Kansas City Royals on Friday night.
The pregame narrative: Toronto can clinch a playoff spot with a win and some help tonight, and I like the club to at least do its part to help make the postseason a reality.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Royals for the Sept. 19 game at Kauffman Stadium, featuring prop predictions on Daulton Varsho and starting pitcher Max Scherzer.
Blue Jays picks vs. Royals
Best bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-130)
Scherzer’s last few turns through the rotation have been bumpy but there’s still been some good takeaways.
- In his last outing (two runs over five frames vs. the Baltimore Orioles), he broke a string of three straight starts allowing four-plus runs.
- Scherzer ran into early issues against the New York Yankees in his start before that, but managed eight Ks in 4.1 innings.
He gives Toronto a starting pitching edge over Michael Lorenzen, who pitched in relief in his last outing and has made seven appearances since coming off the injured list in August.
Lorenzen has a 5.97 ERA since then, allowing four-plus runs in four of his six starts.
He’s a below-average strikeout arm facing a team that rarely strikes out. Toronto should put plenty of balls in play, which leads to good things.
The Blue Jays’ offence, even absent Bo Bichette, is a cut above Kansas City’s.
- Toronto is No. 1 in wRC+ in the second half. Even in a down September, the club’s offence has still been 24% better than the Royals.
- The bullpen has been shaky and remains a question mark moving forward, but the group has settled this month, posting a 2.91 ERA (sixth in MLB) and top-10 K rate.
Key stat: The Royals are 6-10 this month and are scoring the fewest runs per game in the AL.
Jays prop predictions
Scherzer over 16.5 outs (-120): Scherzer hasn’t gotten to this number since Aug. 25, when he reeled off his sixth straight start of six-plus innings.
But Kansas City provides a good opportunity for any pitcher and Scherzer has already handled the club once this season.
- The veteran spun six innings of one-run ball with five Ks vs. K.C. in August.
- Scherzer has struggled keeping the ball in the yard, but Kauffman Stadium is a home run-suppressing park and no team in the AL has hit fewer bombs at home than the Royals.
Some key bullpen arms are possibly down based on recent workloads (Seranthony Dominguez, Braydon Fisher among them) and Toronto is deploying six starters at the moment (rookie Trey Yesavage is getting another start Sunday).
I think those factors should open up the door for Scherzer to work a little deeper.
And with their final off day of the season on Monday, Scherzer will have plenty of time to recover before making one final start before the postseason.
Varsho 1+ RBI (+155): The slugging outfielder should find himself in a run-producing spot, as he’s been slotted No. 4-6 in the lineup in every game he’s started this month.
Varsho has responded with a .280 average while slugging .560 in September.
He’s been a monster with a platoon advantage, slugging .653 with all 18 of his homers, and has 30 RBI in 38 games since coming off the IL in August.
The left-handed hitting Varsho’s .320 ISO over that stretch is the sixth-best mark in MLB.
Blue Jays picks made at 12:30 p.m. ET on 09/19/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.