The Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays close out their series with a matinee on Thursday.
The pregame narrative: Toronto had its six-game winning streak snapped yesterday, but can still pick up a series win this afternoon in Florida. Chris Bassitt is pitching for the visitors opposite Shane Baz, and that matchup should lead to fireworks.
Check out my Blue Jays vs. Rays predictions for Sept. 18, featuring prop bets on Addison Barger and Brandon Lowe.
Blue Jays vs. Rays predictions
Parlay: Over 7.5 runs | Barger over 0.5 RBI | Lowe 1+ hit (+400)
Over 7.5 runs (-127): Why do I like the over? At the risk of sounding reductive, Bassitt has struggled on the road while Baz has gotten lit up at home.
- Bassitt on the road: 5.42 ERA, .281 ERA, 1.47 HR/9
- Baz at home: 6.28 ERA, .278 OBA, 2.10 HR/9
George M. Steinbrenner Field, the Rays’ temporary home venue, has been the 10th-best offensive environment in MLB this year, per Baseball Savant’s park factors.
It’s also been the fifth-most HR-friendly venue, which explains Baz’s horrific 2.10 HR/9 rate. That would by far be the worst of any qualified pitcher over a whole season.
Bassitt has struggled with the long ball away from Rogers Centre and got rocked for five earned runs over 4.0 IP when he pitched here earlier this season.
This feels like a game where both offences can do some serious damage.
MLB SGP legs
Barger 1+ RBI (+160): According to Rotowire, Barger is slated to hit cleanup for the Jays today. That’s a prime spot for run production.
George Springer (.454 OBP) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.407 OBP) both rank top 10 in MLB in on-base percentage since the all-star break.
And Nathan Lukes, who is slated to hit second, has a respectable .320 OBP against RHP.
Barger is hitless in six plate appearances agianst Baz, but that doesn’t worry me.
The sophomore bat has seven RBI in his last six games, and Baz is coming off a disasterous start against the Chicago Cubs (2.1 IP, 5 ER).
Lowe 1+ hit (-195): Lowe is a Blue Jay killer and has done a ton of damage against Bassitt.
He’s 10-for-17 with two doubles and four home runs. That nets out to an absurd .588 batting average and 1.412 slugging percentage.
Lowe has only walked once in those at-bats, which is good to see.
And his .480 xBA and 1.342 xSLG in those at-bats mean the results have been well earned.
Blue Jays vs. Rays predictions as of 8:36 a.m. on 09/18/2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.