Another week, another loaded 16-game NFL slate for bettors to tackle. Our staff has against-the-spread predictions for every game.
The Week 3 narrative: There are some big-time matchups on deck. The Philadelphia Eagles host the Los Angeles Rams in a playoff rematch, while the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers battle for an early-season AFC West lead. A Monday-nighter between the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens caps it all off, and four of our five writers like the Lions to cover as road dogs.
Check out our staff’s Week 3 NFL ATS picks for predictions on every game.
NFL ATS picks: Week 3
NorthStar Bets’ Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin, Spencer Closs, Chris Toman, and Steven Psihogios offer up their Week 3 NFL ATS picks for all 16 games.
NFL odds as of 10:00 a.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 18, 2025.
Thursday Night Football pick
Dolphins vs. Bills (Thursday, Sept. 18: 8:15 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Bills -12
Horrobin says: This should be a laugher, as the spread indicates. Miami has an AFC-worst point differential (-31) after losing as a home favourite last week. Since the 2022 season began, the Bills are 26-4 at home with a 12.5-point average victory margin. Buffalo also went 3-1 ATS vs. Miami over the previous two years.
Staff picks: Perri (BUF) | Horrobin (BUF) | Closs (MIA) | Toman (BUF) | Psihogios (BUF)
NFL ATS picks: The early Sunday slate
Falcons vs. Panthers (Sunday, Sept. 21: 1 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Falcons -5.5
Perri says: Carolina looks bad … again. Bryce Young has completed just 58.9% of passes, and the squad is averaging a meagre 3.7 yards per carry (eighth-lowest in the NFL). The Falcons should lean heavily on Bijan Robinson in this matchup, as the RB averaged 132.5 rushing yards against the Panthers last year. Carolina has a -8.3 margin of victory at home since the start of the 2023 season.
Staff picks: Perri (ATL) | Horrobin (CAR) | Closs (ATL) | Toman (ATL) | Psihogios (ATL)
Bengals vs. Vikings (Sunday, Sept. 21: 1 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Vikings -3
Perri says: No Joe Burrow, no dice. Cincinnati barely managed to beat the Jaguars with Jake Browning (241 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INT) thanks to some questionable refereeing down the stretch. Jacksonville’s defence is sieve-like, and Minnesota’s unit should present a much tougher challenge. I also trust Kevin O’Connell to draw up a solid game plan for Carson Wentz.
Staff picks: Perri (MIN) | Horrobin (CIN) | Closs (MIN) | Toman (CIN) | Psihogios (CIN)
Packers vs. Browns (Sunday, Sept. 21: 1 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Packers -8
Horrobin says: Green Bay dusted two playoff-calibre foes, the Lions and Commanders, in Weeks 1 and 2. I have all the confidence in the world that the Packers can make light work of the Browns. Cleveland is 2-8 vs. a +7.5 spread in its past 10 games and ranks 30th in offensive EPA per play so far this year. Green Bay is 8-5 ATS as favourites since the start of the ’24 campaign.
Staff picks: Perri (GB) | Horrobin (GB) | Closs (GB) | Toman (GB) | Psihogios (GB)
Texans vs. Jaguars (Sunday, Sept. 21: 1 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Jaguars -2
Toman says: The Jaguars have had the easier schedule, but they’ve also been the better team. And they’ve generated offence, something the Texans have struggled to do in back-to-back weeks. The warning signs were there for quarterback C.J. Stroud last season, and he’s done little to quiet skeptics early on with a not-so-great receiving group. Nick Chubb isn’t running the ball well, and Jacksonville has done well against the run. It’s hard for me to get behind the Texans until further notice.
Staff picks: Perri (HOU) | Horrobin (HOU) | Closs (HOU) | Toman (JAX) | Psihogios (HOU)
Colts vs. Titans (Sunday, Sept. 21: 1 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Colts -4
Perri says: Cam Ward will win his first NFL game on Sunday. Book it. The Colts’ defence hasn’t been great so far, ranking last in pass rush win rate and 27th in EPA per rush. Ward should have time to throw, and Tony Pollard, who is fourth in the NFL in rushing, should be decent on the ground. I’m still not sold on Daniel Jones after two solid starts. He was a mess in New York and will regress sooner than later.
Staff picks: Perri (TEN) | Horrobin (IND) | Closs (TEN) | Toman (IND) | Psihogios (TEN)
Raiders vs. Commanders (Sunday, Sept. 21: 1 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Commanders -3.5
Closs says: Let’s focus on Washington’s Week 1 battering of the Giants. The Commanders held Russell Wilson and New York to six points in a 21-6 win. In Week 2, the Giants scored 37 points in a thriller vs. Dallas. It’s clear Washington’s defence is very good and the Raiders haven’t shown much through two games. Vegas has combined to score 29 points and was held to nine points last Monday against the Chargers. I’ll side with the better team at home.
Staff picks: Perri (LV) | Horrobin (LV) | Closs (WSH) | Toman (LV) | Psihogios (WSH)
Rams vs. Eagles (Sunday, Sept. 21: 1 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Eagles -3.5
Horrobin says: Before Philadelphia stormed to a Super Bowl victory, the team was nearly stopped by Los Angeles in a snowy divisional round game. The Rams went 5-6 SU as underdogs last year and have won their first two games of 2025 by a combined 19 points. Philly’s first two wins of the season came by just seven total points.
Staff picks: Perri (LAR) | Horrobin (LAR) | Closs (LAR) | Toman (LAR) | Psihogios (PHI)
Jets vs. Buccaneers (Sunday, Sept. 21: 1 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Buccaneers -6.5
Horrobin says: Tampa Bay is 2-0 ATS so far, gutting out a pair of solid road wins. The Jets’ offence got rolling in Week 1 before taking a step back last week, and now Justin Fields (concussion) will sit out. New York went 1-5 ATS as an underdog last year, and that trend should continue with Tyrod Taylor under centre.
Staff picks: Perri (TB) | Horrobin (TB) | Closs (TB) | Toman (TB) | Psihogios (NYJ)
Steelers vs. Patriots (Sunday, Sept. 21: 1 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Steelers -1.5
Perri says: Pittsburgh lost by two scores to the Seahawks last week after making a series of costly mental errors. The Steelers’ defence has been horrible, but I’m hoping some key returnees (Joey Porter Jr., Derrick Harmon) get them sorted. New England is 3-5-1 ATS at home since the start of last season, losing those games by an average of 7.2 points.
Staff picks: Perri (PIT) | Horrobin (PIT) | Closs (NE) | Toman (NE) | Psihogios (NE)
NFL 4 p.m. slate
Broncos vs. Chargers (Sunday, Sept. 21: 4:05 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Chargers -2.5
Closs says: The Chargers have been impressive through two weeks. They beat the Chiefs to open the season and then shut down the Raiders on Monday Night Football. Justin Herbert has thrown for 506 yards, five TDs with no INTs. His 127.8 passer rating ranks second in the NFL behind Lamar Jackson and far outpaces Bo Nix’s 82.0 passer rating. At this point, the Chargers have the better offence and defence, plus they play at home this weekend. There’s too much working in favour of L.A. to overlook.
Staff picks: Perri (DEN) | Horrobin (LAC) | Closs (LAC) | Toman (LAC) | Psihogios (LAC)
Place your bets on the 4 p.m. NFL slate
Saints vs. Seahawks (Sunday, Sept. 21: 4:05 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Seahawks -7.5
Closs says: I have little to no faith in the Saints with Spencer Rattler under centre. Even his best game (207 yards, three TDs, no INTs) wasn’t enough for the Saints to beat an injury-riddled 49ers squad in Week 2. Seattle’s defence has yet to give up more than 17 points in a game, and I can’t see that changing vs. the lowly Saints. New Orleans is 0-2, losing each game by 5 or more points, and has yet to play on the road.
Staff picks: Perri (SEA) | Horrobin (SEA) | Closs (SEA) | Toman (NO) | Psihogios (NO)
Cardinals vs. 49ers (Sunday, Sept. 21: 4:25 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: 49ers -2.5
Perri says: At the time of writing, Brock Purdy is questionable to start on Sunday. But even if he’s out, I think the Niners should win and cover. The defence is healthy and buzzing under Robert Salah, giving up 17 PPG and ranking fourth in EPA per play. If Mac Jones stays on script, he can lead the offence to another strong outing.
Staff picks: Perri (SF) | Horrobin (SF) | Closs (SF) | Toman (ARI) | Psihogios (ARI)
Cowboys vs. Bears (Sunday, Sept. 21: 4:25 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Cowboys -0.5
Toman says: This has shootout written all over it, and I’m backing the home side in what already feels like a must-win game. The Bears got blasted by Detroit in Week 2 and risk an 0-3 start that would essentially sink them. But the Cowboys are vulnerable defensively and let the Giants hang 21 fourth-quarter points on them in Week 2, needing overtime to escape with a win. Russell Wilson threw for 450 yards — that doesn’t inspire confidence. Caleb Williams should have a field day.
Staff picks: Perri (DAL) | Horrobin (DAL) | Closs (CHI) | Toman (CHI) | Psihogios (DAL)
Sunday and Monday Night NFL ATS picks
Chiefs vs. Giants (Sunday, Sept. 21: 8:20 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Chiefs -6
Closs says: It doesn’t feel great betting against the Chiefs, but there’s no reason to get behind a number this high. New York’s offence looked a lot better in Week 2, scoring 37 points behind 450 yards and three TD passes from Wilson. The Chiefs are 0-2 and have yet to score more than 21 points in a game. Even last season, when Kansas City went 15-2, the side went 8-9 ATS. The Chiefs should win this game, but I expect the Giants to keep it within a touchdown.
Staff picks: Perri (KC) | Horrobin (NYG) | Closs (NYG) | Toman (KC) | Psihogios (NYG)
Lions vs. Ravens (Monday, Sept. 22: 8:15 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Ravens -5.0
Horrobin says: It’s a rarity to be able to bank points with Detroit, a team that was only an underdog twice last year. The Lions flopped in Week 1 (at Green Bay), but they got right with a blowout win last Sunday (vs. Chicago). Detroit is 7-10 SU as an underdog since 2022, and this squad is still far too dangerous to be getting this many points.
Staff picks: Perri (BAL) | Horrobin (DET) | Closs (DET) | Toman (DET) | Psihogios (DET)
NFL ATS picks: Week 2 + season records: Toman: 7-9 (17-15) | Perri: 7-9 (16-16) | Horrobin: 6-10 (14-18) | Psihogios: 5-11 (13-19) | Closs: 7-9 (13-19)
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