Our staff’s Week 3 best bet recommendations feature a pair of ATS picks, one moneyline wager and two prop bets.
The Week 3 narrative: The Green Bay Packers have looked unstoppable so far, and travel to Cleveland for a date with the downtrodden Browns. They’re one of two teams we’re backing as touchdown-plus favourites. On the prop market, Bijan Robinson should run over the Carolina Panthers.
Check out our NFL Week 3 staff best bets for our favourite picks this weekend, featuring predictions on quarterbacks Cam Ward and Caleb Williams.
NFL Week 3 best bets
These NFL Week 3 best bets were provided by NorthStar Bets writers Jordan Horrobin, Avery Perri and Chris Toman.
ATS picks
Buccaneers -7 (-113): The Tampa Bay Buccaneers haven’t covered this number yet, but they’re is 2-0 ATS with a pair of hard-fought road victories. The journey to a fifth consecutive division title is off to a great start.
As for the New York Jets, last week’s 30-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills was a bitter reality check.
New York will play on the road for the first time, and they’ll have to do so without quarterback Justin Fields, who suffered a concussion last Sunday.
Fields’ backup, Tyrod Taylor, last made a road start for the Giants (at Buffalo) in 2023. His team scored nine points in a loss.
Last season, the Jets went 1-5 ATS as underdogs, per Team Rankings.
-Horrobin
Packers -7.5 (-112): Green Bay has begun this season in as impressive a fashion as possible. Opening with the Lions and Commanders — two teams that went 27-7 in the regular season last year — the Packers earned a pair of multi-score wins at home.
Hitting the road poses a new challenge, but a feeble Browns team awaits.
Cleveland has lost nine of its past 10 games dating back to last year, going 2-8 vs. a +7.5 spread.
The Packers are 8-5 ATS as favourites since the start of the 2024 season.
-Horrobin
Best moneyline bet
Steelers moneyline (-118): Aaron Rodgers looked rough in Week 2, as the Steelers were downed by two scores at home by the Seattle Seahawks.
Pittsburgh had an unlucky self-tipped goal-line interception and a fluky defensive touchdown after failing to recover a kickoff in its own end zone.
Clean up those mistakes, and it’s a much different ballgame.
New England isn’t a good football team, going 2-7 at home since the start of last season. The Patriots rank 25th so far in pass block win rate, so I expect T.J. Watt and Co. to make Drake Maye’s life miserable.
-Perri
NFL Week 3 best bets: Player props
Bijan Robinson over 83.5 rushing yards (-112): Robinson exploded on Sunday Night Football last week, turning 22 carries into 143 yards against the Minnesota Vikings.
I expect another huge performance in Carolina.
The Panthers’ defence ranked last in rushing yards per game (179.8), EPA per rush, and rush success rate last season, per RBSDM.com.
And through two games so far, it has allowed 282 rushing yards (seventh-most). Travis Etienne Jr. smashed this number in Week 1 with 143 yards on 16 carries.
Robinson averaged 132.5 rushing yards against Carolina last year, going 2-0 against this line.
-Perri
Quarterback player prop picks
Cam Ward over 202.5 passing yards (-113): Ward hasn’t eclipsed this number yet, but should have enough time in the pocket to find receivers on Sunday.
The Indianapolis Colts rank last in pass rush win rate so far (19%) and sacked Bo Nix zero times in last week’s thriller.
Ward has averaged 30.5 passing attempts per game, which is a healthy volume. He’s only converting those at a 50.8% clip, and I have to believe some positive regression is coming.
Tyler Lockett and Calvin Ridley are a solid 1-2 receiving duo, and Indy’s top corner, Charvarius Ward, might not be at 100% returning from a concussion.
-Perri
Caleb Williams over 27.5 rushing yards (-113): Williams’ Chicago Bears get the Dallas Cowboys, who allowed the most touchdowns and rushing yards per game to quarterbacks last season (per StatMuse).
Williams showed off his legs in Week 1, running for 58 yards on an average of 9.7 yards per carry, and he scored his first career rushing TD.
His Week 2 production dipped but was still solid. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry and managed 27 yards in a blowout loss to the Detroit Lions.
Detroit played comfortably ahead, so a better game script would have probably led to even greater Week 2 numbers. That’s what I expect Sunday vs. the Cowboys, a game that’s hovered in pick’em territory.
- Russell Wilson reeled off 7.3 yards per carry against the Cowboys last week, but only rushed three times. In Week 1, Jalen Hurts shredded Dallas: 14 carries, 62 yards, two touchdowns.
- Williams, meanwhile, rushed for 27+ yards in six of his final eight games as a rookie.
He has both floor and upside, rushing for 40-plus yards five times in his 19-game career, and averaging 30-plus yards/game.
On top of that, RB1 D’Andre Swift has been limited in practice this week with a quadriceps issue.
-Toman
NFL Week 3 best bets made at 11:06 a.m. ET on 09/18/2025.
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