It’s Max Scherzer day at Rogers Centre as the Toronto Blue Jays vie for a series win.
The pregame narrative: Scherzer will face the Baltimore Orioles, a team he saw all the way back in March. Toronto is favoured over a Baltimore club that went 8-1 in its final nine games before coming to town.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Orioles for Sept. 13, featuring Scherzer and Nathan Lukes.
Blue Jays picks vs. Orioles
Best Bet: Scherzer under 6.5 Ks (-122)
The Orioles are one of the most strikeout-prone teams in MLB, but still. Scherzer is not worthy of a line this high.
I realize I’m saying that after he struck out eight in his most recent outing, but look at his full body of work in 2025:
- 70 Ks in 14 starts (5.0 Ks/start)
- Under 6.5 Ks is 10-4 overall
- Under 6.5 Ks is 6-1 since August
Scherzer has mostly been very good for the Blue Jays this season (when healthy), but he’s coming off three consecutive starts with four earned runs allowed.
Baltimore could chase him from this game early, thus reducing his chances of clearing this total.
The 41-year-old made his Toronto debut against the O’s back in March. That outing was cut short by a thumb injury, but it wasn’t off to a good start in terms of Ks (he had one strikeout through 3.0 innings).
Key stat: Scherzer has a 55th-percentile K rate, per Baseball Savant. His chase rate (16th percentile) and whiff rate (30th percentile) are both well below average.
Quick picks
Lukes over 0.5 runs (-106): I’m buying Lukes’ opportunity today in spite of some recent mediocrity from him.
Lukes is batting .288 in his past 15 games, which is solid, but he only has one walk in that span. That equates to a .296 OBP.
Still, he’s in a great spot to score on Saturday as the Jays’ No. 2 hitter. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is right behind him, and Vladdy has a 1.297 OPS in 10 games this month.
Also, Baltimore starter Tomoyuki Sugano struggles against lefty bats. LHBs have an .839 OPS against him this season.
Sugano has allowed 15 runs over his past three starts.
Blue Jays picks made at 1:10 p.m. ET on 09/13/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.