The U.S. Open women’s semifinal matches go down Thursday night.
The pregame narrative: World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka’s title defence continues when she plays Jessica Pegula. After that, Naomi Osaka looks to reach her first Grand Slam final since 2021, but first she’ll need to overcome a very tough opponent in Amanda Anisimova.
Check out my top 2025 U.S. Open picks for the women’s semifinal.
US Open picks: Women’s semifinal
Best Bet: Osaka to win (-114)
It’s been quite the career renaissance for Osaka, who’s putting together her best season since being ranked No. 1 back in 2019.
- Osaka is 32-12 in 2025 (21-6 on hardcourts).
- She’s been dominant recently, winning 11 of her last 12 matches with nine of those victories coming in straight sets.
- When she’s at her best, she’s one of the elite players on this surface, demonstrated by her 203-95 career record on hardcourts.
That is much better than Anisimova’s 116-68 hardcourt record (18-7 this season).
It’s still worth noting how well Anisimova is playing, though. She’s lost just one set at the U.S. Open and most recently eliminated Iga Swiatek in straight sets.
But Osaka has notable wins of her own, beating No. 3-ranked Coco Gauff in straight sets before eliminating No. 13 Karolina Muchova in a similar fashion.
Before the U.S. Open, Anisimova lost back-to-back matches convincingly. Meanwhile, Osaka has had one loss since the start of August in a close match against Victoria Mboko in the National Bank Open final.
These two are evenly matched as seen by the pick’em price, but I’ll gladly back Osaka’s momentum and ability on hardcourts.
Key stat: The Japanese star has been extremely good at taking advantage of break opportunities. At the U.S. Open, she has won 81% of her total break points (25-of-31) while Anisimova has converted at a measly 40% (23-of-57).
US Open best bet
Sabalenka -1.5 sets (-107): This pick feels like a no-brainer. Sabalenka is the best in the world and has an advantageous matchup.
The world No. 1 is the standard for consistency. She’s 54-10 this season, including a 30-5 record on hardcourts.
Pegula is having a great season herself, holding a 42-16 record (27-9 on this playing surface).
But when we look at their head-to-head history, it becomes apparent that Sabalenka is on a different level.
- Sabalenka has won seven of the nine matches against Pegula in her career.
- At the 2024 U.S. Open, Sabalenka defeated Pegula in the final in straight sets (7-5, 7-5).
- Overall, these two have played three times on hardcourts since the start of 2024, and the favourite is 3-0 in those contests without dropping a set.
The reigning champ has cruised through the event so far, winning four matches in straight sets before receiving a walkover in the quarterfinal.
She is well rested and has always had the upper hand on Pegula. I expect a dominant win en route to another Grand Slam final.
Sabalenka has won 15 of the 19 total sets played between these competitors.
US Open picks made at 11:11 a.m. on 09/04/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.