After a dramatic conclusion to yesterday’s series opener, the Toronto Blue Jays and Cincinnati Reds are back at it on Tuesday night.
The pregame narrative: Toronto grabbed a lead in the ninth on Monday and coughed it up immediately in a walk-off loss. The Jays have now lost four of their past six games, and the bullpen has played a significant role in that slide.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Reds for Sept. 2, featuring Jose Berrios and Davis Schneider.
Blue Jays best bets vs. Reds
Best bet: Berrios over 16.5 outs (-108)
These are dark times for the Toronto bullpen. The longer John Schneider can delay turning to that group right now, the better.
Since the all-star break, the Jays’ relief corps is one of seven units with a negative fWAR value. Here’s where they rank in the second half on a league-wide scale:
- 30th in left-on-base rate (64.4%)
- 29th in ERA (5.61)
- 28th in walk rate (11.1%)
- 27th in opponent BA (.256)
Toronto’s bullpen has worked the second-fewest innings of any MLB relief group since the break, but the unit could use a breather right now.
Five of the eight relievers (excluding Eric Lauer, who was just bumped into a long-relief role) have worked twice in the past three days.
All of this is to say, some length from Berrios tonight would be warmly welcomed. And this line isn’t asking a ton from him.
Berrios is averaging 17.0 outs this season and is 16-11 vs. this line. He has also held the Reds’ current lineup to a .169 BA and a .203 SLG in 66 plate appearances, per Baseball Savant.
Cincinnati found some offence at the last second on Monday, but the club’s bats have largely been quiet for a while.
Since the all-star break, the Reds have a collective .248/.318/.376 slash line and rank 27th in wRC+ (89).
I don’t expect Berrios to get chased by this lineup, which should allow him to work deep enough to cash this prop.
Key stat: Berrios has pitched into the sixth inning or later in 21 of 27 starts this season.
Jays prop pick
Schneider over 0.5 runs (+105): The depth of Toronto’s lineup has pushed Schneider well down in the pecking order. But he still wields a solid bat when given the chance.
- After getting optioned to Triple-A Buffalo in April, Schneider successfully hit the reset button and returned to Toronto on June 1.
- Since the start of June, he has 10 home runs and a .910 OPS in 153 plate appearances.
- In August alone, he had a 1.051 OPS in 19 games. He scored nine runs in 11 starts during that span.
Schneider doesn’t have drastic platoon splits, but the team likes to showcase him when a left-hander is on the mound.
He’ll likely bat in the No. 2 spot tonight against Reds southpaw Nick Lodolo. That’s where left-hitting Addison Barger slots in when a righty is pitching.
Behind Schneider will be Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (151 wRC+ vs. LHPs) and Bo Bichette (220 wRC+ in the past two weeks). That’s a spectacular place to be.
Blue Jays best bets made at 10:40 a.m. ET on 09/02/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.