A pair of AL contenders clash on Tuesday, and I have my eyes on two sluggers at plus money in that matchup.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Aaron Judge went through a cold spell recently, but he’s shaping back into form and has the right matchup to do damage. I’m also tapping into the Astros’ lineup and backing Jose Altuve against Yankees starter Max Fried.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 2, featuring a prediction on Gunnar Henderson.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Henderson over 1.5 total bases (+106)
The shortstop had a single and a walk in Monday’s series opener, falling short of this line.
Walks can be an issue when backing an over in the total bases market, but I’m not too concerned with Henderson’s average 9.0% walk rate.
He’s been seeing the ball well lately, too. Henderson has six hits in his last 19 plate appearances with just one strikeout.
Yu Darvish gets the start for the San Diego Padres, and he’s not been so good since coming back from his long injury recovery.
In 10 starts this season, the righty has a 5.66 ERA. That includes giving up nine earned runs over his past three outings (14.0 innings pitched).
It’s also a very limited sample size, but Henderson has a single and a double in three at-bats against Darvish in his career.
Key stat: Henderson will also enjoy the platoon advantage in this matchup. He bats .310 vs. righties with a .910 OPS.
Best MLB picks
Judge over 0.5 RBI (+135): I couldn’t pass up on this value on Judge, especially with how he’s heating up.
- Over his last five games, he has seven hits, three home runs and four RBI.
- In the seven games before that, he went 3-for-30 with 10 Ks, so it’s very encouraging to see the huge turnaround.
In 15 plate appearances against Framber Valdez, Judge has just three hits. But he does have four walks, equating to a .467 OBP.
That tells me he reads the starter well but hasn’t seen much to get a hold of.
Valdez is a lefty after all and Judge crushes LHPs with a 1.227 OPS this season. He ranks sixth in MLB with 97 RBI despite missing time.
Altuve over 0.5 runs (+150): This is a pick revolving mostly around Fried’s struggles against the Astros lineup.
- Altuve hits third in Houston’s order, usually behind the trio of Carlos Correa, Jesus Sanchez and Christian Walker.
- The three have a combined .368 average in 38 career at-bats off Fried.
- Altuve himself has been very successful in this matchup, with a .455 average and 1.318 OPS in 12 meetings with Fried.
The second baseman leads the Astros with 73 runs and should be in a great spot to add to that total on Tuesday.
In Fried’s first start against Houston this season, Altuve hit a home run in the first inning and scored three runs total.
MLB prop picks made at 10:04 a.m. ET on 09/02/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.