Trea Turner and Jazz Chisholm Jr. headline Thursday’s MLB home run picks.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Atlanta’s Cal Quantrill is having a dreadful August, and Turner has gone deep off him twice before. The Philadelphia Phillies shortstop is in form and should keep hammering the struggling righty. Elsewhere, look for Chisholm to capitalize on a platoon advantage.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 28.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Turner to hit a home run (+475)
This is shaping up to be a dream matchup for Turner, who, while never a big home run hitter, has some pop left in his bat.
The veteran shortstop has belted 14 home runs this season, and three of those have come in August, a month where he’s slashing .330/.381/.514.
Quantrill, meanwhile, has gotten rocked over four starts this month to the tune of a 9.72 ERA:
- Aug. 5 vs. Astros: 4.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 HR
- Aug. 10 vs. Braves: 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 HR
- Aug. 16 vs. Red Sox: 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 1 HR
- Aug. 23 vs. Mets: 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 HR
On the season, the righty ranks in the bottom 16th percentile in xERA, xBA, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, K rate and whiff rate. Basically, he does nothing well except limit walks.
His 7.1% BB rate ranks in the 71st percentile, which is good because Turner should get something to hit.
Key stat: Quantrill has a 1.9 HR/9 rate this season, which, if qualified, would be the worst in MLB.
Best HR predictions
Chisholm to hit a home run (+370): Chisholm isn’t the first person you’d think of on the Yankees when it comes to hitting bombs, but he’s actually been outperforming Aaron Judge against righties this year.
- Chisholm: 23 HRs in 263 ABs (11.43 ABs per HR)
- Judge: 30 HRs in 352 ABs (11.63 ABs per HR)
The left-handed hitting infielder will have a platoon advantage against Chicago White Sox righty Davis Martin.
Martin (3.93 ERA) is having a fine year on paper, but his xERA (5.36) and batted ball metrics tell a different story.
The righty ranks in the bottom 25th percentile for barrel rate, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity and K rate.
In August, Martin has given up five home runs in four appearances, while Chisholm has hit seven HRs.
MLB home run picks made at 8:55 a.m. ET on 08/28/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.