The Toronto Blue Jays can secure a series win — and a season series win — in Tuesday night’s home matchup against the Minnesota Twins.
The pregame narrative: After a 10-4 victory last night, Toronto is now 3-1 vs. Minnesota on the season. The Twins have lost 12 of their past 16 games to fall well out of wild-card contention, while Toronto is holding tight to a five-game lead in the AL East.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Twins for Aug. 26, featuring a prop bet on Alejandro Kirk.
Blue Jays best bets vs. Twins
Best bet: Blue Jays -1.5 (+120)
Last night’s win for Toronto was comfortable from wire to wire, as the team scored four in the first inning and retained a multi-run lead the rest of the way.
I think the Jays should be able to win by margin again tonight. They’re simply the better team, and starter Chris Bassitt has done his best work inside Rogers Centre.
- Since the all-star break, Toronto has an MLB-best .288/.355/.487 slash line and a 134 wRC+. In the same span, Minnesota is collectively batting .227 with the 23rd-ranked wRC+ (93).
- In the Twins’ past 16 games, Minnesota is just 5-11 vs. a +1.5 run line. The team has a -39 run differential in that span.
- Bassitt is 8-0 with a 2.73 ERA and a .690 opponent OPS in 14 home starts this year. In contrast, he is 3-7 with a 6.10 ERA and an .839 opponent OPS in 13 road outings.
These teams have been moving in opposite directions for a while. The current gap between them is enough to make this plus-money run line price enticing.
Bailey Ober, who starts for the Twins tonight, allowed five earned runs to the Jays in June as part of a 6-4 victory for Toronto.
Oh, and the Jays have the third-best run line record in MLB (76-56), per Team Rankings. The Twins’ run line record is 61-70.
Key stat: Toronto is 10-4 vs. a -1.5 run line in Bassitt’s 14 home starts this year.
Jays prop bet
Kirk over 1.5 bases (+120): Kirk had a great night in the series opener, going 1-for-2 with a home run and a pair of walks.
In his past 16 starts, the catcher is now 8-8 vs. this prop with a .500 SLG.
Ober has one of the lowest walk rates in the majors (5.1%, 93rd percentile according to Baseball Savant), so Kirk will likely have to put the ball in play to reach base. That’s a good thing for this prop.
Kirk has excellent bat-to-ball skills, evidenced by his 93rd-percentile xBA (.292) and his 91st-percentile hard-hit rate (51.4%). And he’s batting .302 vs. right-handed pitchers this year.
Blue Jays best bets made at 9:05 a.m. ET on 08/26/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.