Last Saturday’s Week 0 action was an appetizer, but the main course of the college football season arrives with Week 1.
The pregame narrative: From Thursday through Monday, 91 games are on tap. That includes a pair of top-10 ranked matchups, one of which (No. 9 LSU vs. No. 4 Clemson) is featured in this week’s predictions.
Check out the best college football Week 1 picks, featuring a prediction on No. 8 Alabama vs. Florida State.
College football picks Week 1
Best bet: Florida State +14 (-134)
Florida State left a really bad taste in a lot of people’s mouths last year. A 2-10 record for a team with College Football Playoff hopes will do that to you.
After hitting the reset button in a major way, I don’t think the Seminoles will get laughed out of their own building in the season opener.
- Florida State overhauled its roster with a ton of transfers, netting the sixth-best transfer portal ranking in the country, per 247 Sports.
- For as bad as things were in Tallahassee last year — and they were bad — the Seminoles only last by more than two scores in two of six home games.
Thomas Castellanos, whose Boston College Eagles were one of several teams to upset Florida State last year, is now FSU’s starting quarterback. He stirred the pot in June by suggested Alabama wouldn’t be able to stop him.
I don’t buy that, but I do think Castellanos’ experience and swagger can help the Seminoles keep this game respectable. Along with the fact that Alabama is breaking in a new starting quarterback (Ty Simpson) and will be without starting tailback Jam Miller.
Simpson has been at Bama since 2022 and has a five-star pedigree. But he’s only attempted 50 collegiate passes, and his inability to climb the depth chart ladder feels telling.
The Crimson Tide should walk out of this one with a win. But can they do it by a convincing number against a remade Florida State team? I don’t think so.
Key stat: Alabama went 2-4 ATS in road or neutral venues last year, losing four of those games outright as favourites.
College football best bets
Clemson -3.5 (-110): Clemson and LSU both play in a venue nicknamed Death Valley, and they’re both the Tigers … and they both have quarterbacks hoping to hear their name called in Round 1 of next year’s NFL draft.
Despite all similarities, Clemson should have the edge as the home squad in the season opener.
- Over the past five seasons, Clemson is 29-4 at home.
- Quarterback Cade Klubnik, a third-year starter, is PFF’s top-rated QB in NCAA Division I this season.
- Clemson brought back 16 starters from last year’s CFP squad, including three defensive players who are currently being mocked as top-15 draft picks by ESPN.
LSU has its own stud QB in Garrett Nussmeier (rated No. 5 at PFF), but the visiting Tigers can’t compete with Clemson’s returning talent.
Under head coach Brian Kelly, LSU is 0-3 in season openers — losing all three games outright as favourites.
Thursday night prediction: Ohio vs. Rutgers
Ohio +15.5 (-110): This is a bit of a homer pick, given that the author of this article happens to be an Ohio University graduate. Nonetheless, there’s some legitimate rationale behind the play, too.
The Ohio Bobcats finally climbed the Mid-American Conference mountaintop last year, claiming their first conference championship since 1968.
Stylistically, their run-heavy approach on offence should play against Rutgers.
The Scarlet Knights ranked 130th among 134 FBS schools last year in defensive EPA per rush, according to Game on Paper. They allowed 5.2 yards per carry and 26 rushing TDs over 13 games.
Ohio brought back quarterback Parker Navarro, a 1,000-yard rusher who had a MAC-high 18 TDs on the ground last year. At tailback, the Bobcats reunited with Sieh Bangura, who had 1,889 yards in 2022-23 before spending last season with Minnesota.
Rutgers did cover this spread once last season against a fellow FBS school, Akron. But Ohio also trounced Akron last year, 30-10, and should grind out enough yards on offence to stay relatively close.
College football picks made at 3:20 p.m. on 08/25/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.