Brent Rooker has already homered off reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal a few times. Can he do it again on Monday night?
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Rooker is one of two MLB home run picks on Monday night, and his history with Skubal is a big part of that. For a true long shot play, look at Riley Adams‘ opportunity inside Yankee Stadium.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 25.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Adams to hit a home run (+600)
Blue Jays fans might remember Adams, who was drafted early by Toronto in 2017 and was later traded one-for-one in exchange for reliever Brad Hand.
Adams, now 29, is merely a platoon catcher that the Jays shouldn’t regret moving on from. But I’m liking his long shot HR potential on Monday night.
Here are a few reasons why:
- Adams is excelling right now. Over his past 29 games (26 starts), Adams has a .489 SLG. Keep in mind that in 31 games before that he only had a .430 OPS.
- New York’s Cam Schlittler has reverse splits. The right-handed Schlittler has been worse against right-hitting opponents, allowing a .483 SLG and four HRs in just 60 at-bats.
- Yankee Stadium is a superb HR park. Over the past three seasons, right-hitting players have hit 19% more homers at Yankee Stadium than on average elsewhere, per Baseball Savant.
Adams, like Schlittler, also has reverse splits. Neither one is great … but Adams’ OPS vs. righties (.654) is a notch better than his OPS vs. lefties (.612).
One other thing is that a notable breeze is expected to blow out at Yankee Stadium on Monday night (7.4 mph to 10.1 mph during game time, per Swish Analytics).
I’d never use weather conditions as a primary driver for this sort of wager, but it doesn’t hurt in this case.
Key stat: It’s a limited sample, but Adams has some encouraging batted ball metrics. His average exit velocity (91.6 mph) and barrel rate (13.5%) are both well above the league average (89.4 mph, 8.5% barrel rate).
Best HR predictions
Rooker to hit a home run (+475): Skubal is in good shape to defend his AL Cy Young status, which makes him a difficult pitcher to bet against in the home run prop market.
But Rooker has had Skubal’s number a few times, and in the hitter-friendly confines of Sutter Health Park, I like this price enough to take a swing.
Rooker is 8-for-17 (.471) off Skubal with three home runs. That’s just not a stat line you’ll see often against the Tigers’ ace.
Back in June, when these teams met in Detroit, Rooker took Skubal deep to left with a 110-mph blast that travelled 415 feet, per Baseball Savant.
Rooker is slugging .573 off left-handers this year, and he has an 89th-percentile barrel rate (14.1%) overall.
Even with the league’s best lefty on the mound, the A’s designated hitter is worth a look.
MLB home run picks made at 10:53 a.m. ET on 08/25/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.