It’s the final week of August, and the Toronto Blue Jays are back home to begin a three-game series against the Minnesota Twins.
The pregame narrative: Toronto took two of three games off Minnesota back in June, back when both teams were a handful of games over .500. Things have shifted drastically since then, as the Jays now hold the cards in the AL East and the Twins are well out of a playoff spot.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Twins for Aug. 25, featuring prop bets on Byron Buxton and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Blue Jays best bets vs. Twins
Best bet: Buxton under 1.5 total bases (-130)
For as long as Buxton and Scherzer have been in the majors, you’d think they would’ve faced each other by now.
Not so, but Monday’s matchup between two resurgent vets should be a good one.
I’m giving the edge to Scherzer, who has done well to earn a spot in Toronto’s crowded rotation. The 18th-year righty has a 3.14 ERA and a .206 opponent BA in his past seven starts.
Buxton, an all-star in Year 11 with the Twins, is tough to fade. But for as good as he’s been this year, his numbers are notably worse vs. RHPs and on the road.
- Home: .908 OPS
- Road: .815 OPS
- Against LHPs: .976 OPS
- Against RHPs: .831 OPS
We’re also catching Buxton during a dip in productivity.
From July 22 onward, Buxton has a .167/.222/.273 slash line in 17 games. He’s 13-4 to the under on this prop in that span.
Buxton has twice as many strikeouts (22) as hits (11) in those 17 games, too. He’s far from locked in right now.
Key stat: Scherzer has held right-hitting players to a .238/.291/.396 slash line this season.
Jays prop bet
Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+104): Guerrero has decent numbers vs. Ryan (3-for-8, one walk), but that’s not really what this is about.
These days, I’m inclined to at least glance at Guerrero’s bases prop any time the over sits in the plus-money range.
- Guerrero has a 207 wRC+ since the all-star break, which is the second-highest in MLB.
- Over his past 26 starts, Vladdy is 17-9 vs. this prop with an 1.128 OPS.
Ryan has some excellent stuff, but he’s susceptible to giving up hard contact in the air. His 11.0% barrel rate ranks in the 11th percentile, per Baseball Savant, while his 37.0% ground ball rate ranks in the 24th percentile.
Guerrero dealt with a hamstring injury recently but was back at the plate as a pinch-hitter on Sunday. He should be good to go Monday night.
Blue Jays best bets made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 08/25/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.