Friday night’s MLB home run picks are Brandon Lowe and Wyatt Langford.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Lowe is scorching hot at the plate right now and playing in a very homer-friendly park. As for Langford, the opposing starter on the mound is a key reason why he’s a strong candidate to go yard.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 22.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Lowe to hit a home run (+380)
Lowe has always possessed a solid power bat, but his potential is dimmed by all the swing-and-miss in his game.
The all-star second baseman has thumped 24 homers in 104 games, marking his third consecutive season above the 20-homer plateau. Then again, he’s in line for a third consecutive season with a strikeout rate north of 25.0%.
Sometimes, whiffs are a worthwhile tradeoff at the expense of swinging for the fences. And against a pitcher like Miles Mikolas, who Lowe will see tonight, I’m not concerned about strikeouts.
Mikolas averages 92.7 mph on his fastball, per Baseball Savant, which is well below the 95.0-mph average for right-handed pitchers. He also ranks in the bottom 11th percentile (or worse) in chase rate, whiff rate and K rate.
If Lowe can stay on Mikolas’ four-seam fastball, I love his chances of parking one over the wall at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa Bay.
- Left-hitting players are 26-for-74 (.351) with a .770 SLG and eight HRs off Mikolas’ four-seamer.
- Lowe is 24-for-69 (.348) with a .725 SLG and eight HRs against four-seamers from RHPs this season.
Tampa’s temporary home park has been the fourth-friendliest home run venue this season, allowing 21% more long balls than average (based on Baseball Savant’s park factors data).
It’s a perfect setting for Lowe to tee off.
Key stat: Lowe has five homers and a .596 SLG in his past 13 games.
Best HR predictions
Langford to hit a home run (+370): This pick has a lot to do with Cleveland’s starting pitcher, Slade Cecconi, who has been giving out HRs like free candy since the all-star break.
Cecconi has a 2.06 HR/9 in the second half, which is the sixth-highest rate among 76 qualified pitchers. It equates to eight homers in 35.0 innings.
Langford, the fourth-overall pick in the 2023 draft, bashed 47 homers in just 134 career games at the collegiate level. We haven’t seen that power fully translate yet, but there are signs.
For example, his 13.3% barrel rate this year ranks in the 85th percentile, while his 91.2 mph average exit velocity ranks in the 77th percentile.
Langford has homered in two of his past four games, and he’s slugging .500 since July 27. He’s a worthwhile pick to keep up the home run barrage against Cecconi.
MLB home run picks made at 10:03 a.m. ET on 08/22/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.