Two bitter AL East rivals clash on Thursday night in the Bronx as the New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox.
The pregame narrative: Both teams are chasing the Toronto Blue Jays in the division standings, and this four-game set presents an opportunity to gain some hard-earned ground. Luis Gil will start for the Yankees after a few bumpy outings to begin his injury-shortened campaign.
Check out my Red Sox vs. Yankees prop picks for Aug. 21, featuring Gil and Roman Anthony.
Red Sox vs. Yankees prop picks
Best bet: Gil over 15.5 outs (+105)
Gil hasn’t been great so far in his brief 2025 experience, but this price is worth a play on such a modest line.
The 2024 AL Rookie of the Year has allowed 23 baserunners in just 14.0 innings, which is certainly not a trend I want to see continuing tonight in the Bronx.
Walks have been an issue for Gil in the past, and they continue to be an issue now. His 5.1 BB/9 this year is higher than last year … and he had an AL-high 77 walks in 2024.
Thanks to a career 10.3 K/9 rate, though, Gil is often able to wriggle out of the fires he starts.
Also, the Red Sox aren’t likely to take full advantage of his wildness. Boston ranks 17th in MLB in walk rate.
Boston’s offence isn’t in its sharpest form right now, either, with just a .235/.326/.371 slash line (92 wRC+) in the past two weeks.
And Gil has great numbers against this lineup, albeit in a small sample:
- 4-for-28 (.143)
- 0 extra-base hits
- 9 Ks (30 K%)
- 2 walks
The Yankees’ bullpen isn’t particularly taxed, but all three of its high-leverage arms were put to use last night. And the team won’t have another off-day until September.
So if Gil can keep the walk count relatively low, working into the sixth is perfectly doable.
Key stat: After being eased in during his season debut, Gil has cashed this bet in back-to-back starts.
Quick pick
Anthony over 0.5 runs (-108): I don’t expect Gil to be perfect tonight, and Anthony is the type of hitter who should profile well against him.
The rookie outfielder has a sky-high walk rate of 14.6%, which would be among the highest in the league if he was a qualified hitter. For context, the average walk rate in MLB is 8.4%.
Anthony has a .423 on-base percentage against right-handed pitching, with nearly as many walks (28) as strikeouts (34). So he clearly sees the ball well from that side.
And as a leadoff man, Anthony is typically in the best position to score among anyone in Boston’s lineup. He has 18 runs in his past 18 games and has cashed this bet in 26 of 52 starts.
Red Sox vs. Yankees prop picks made at 2:20 p.m. ET on 08/21/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.