Thursday’s home run picks are priced at +600 and +700 apiece. So if you want some longer odds plays, you’re in the right place.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Jesus Sanchez is struggling mightily at the plate right now, but tonight’s opportunity in Baltimore is a compelling one for left-hitting power bats like him. Earlier on, Christian Yelich has an intriguing price despite a platoon disadvantage.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 21.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Sanchez to hit a home run (+600)
Let’s get the glaring concern out of the way first: Sanchez is in an 0-for-31 tailspin right now.
The left-hitting outfielder is essentially unplayable against left-handed pitchers, but he wields a fair amount of power against right-handers.
Sanchez is slugging .430 vs. RHPs this year, and nine of his 10 homers have come against righties.
Those numbers don’t jump off the page, but we are talking about a 6-to-1 dart throw here. And there’s more to like.
Sanchez will play at Baltimore’s Camden Yards tonight. According to Baseball Savant, that’s the second-most homer-friendly park for lefty hitters in MLB (40% more home runs than average).
On the mound for Baltimore is right-hander Brandon Young, who’s been a long ball victim many times over at his home park.
Young has allowed a .676 SLG in six home starts this year. In just 26.2 innings, he’s coughed up nine HRs at Camden Yards.
Key stat: Sanchez’s .430 SLG vs. righties isn’t remarkable, but his .497 xSLG vs. righties is rather encouraging.
Best HR predictions
Yelich to hit a home run (+700): Yelich is in a lefty-on-lefty matchup tonight against a strong pitcher, but I still think this price stands out in a good way.
Yes, Cubs southpaw Shota Imanaga (8-5, 3.06 ERA) is a tough matchup in a general sense. But he’s not impervious to giving up bombs.
Since the start of July, Imanaga has allowed 11 HRs in nine starts. His 1.86 HR/9 rate in that span is the 12th-highest among 74 qualified pitchers.
Yelich is 3-for-8 with a home run vs. Imanaga. Also, the Milwaukee outfielder has seven HRs and a 178 wRC+ in his past 21 games.
MLB home run picks made at 10:53 a.m. ET on 08/21/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.