I’ve got picks on two MVP candidates going head-to-head in the WNBA on Thursday.
The latest: A’ja Wilson has been scoring the ball at a ridiculous rate and I like her to continue her strong play against the Phoenix Mercury. On the other side, Alyssa Thomas is flirting with a triple-double average but has had little success in this matchup recently.
Check out the best WNBA prop bets for Aug. 21, featuring a pick on Sonia Citron.
WNBA prop bets
Best bet: Wilson over 23.5 points (-134)
Wilson has been making a strong push for her fourth MVP in recent weeks. She now holds the second-shortest odds (+300), continuing to creep up on the injured Napheesa Collier.
- Over her past seven games, Wilson has scored 27+ points six times.
- During that time, she averaged 28.7 points on an efficient 50.8% shooting. It also helps that she’s canning free throws at an above-90% clip, too.
In the one game Wilson finished below this total, she shot a pitiful 3-for-14 from the field and still managed 17 points.
Her floor as a scorer is the highest of anyone in the WNBA right now, and I want to take advantage.
Wilson has scored 30+ points in seven of her last 16 games. One of those contests was against the Mercury.
Key stat: In two games vs. Phoenix this season, Wilson has averaged 28.0 PPG and gone 2-0 against this wager.
Best WNBA picks
Thomas under 18.5 rebounds/assists (-120): Thomas was second on the MVP odds board but was surpassed by Wilson thanks to her recent run.
That doesn’t take away from Thomas’ incredible season, though. She’s averaging 16.1 points, 8.6 rebounds and 9.0 assists.
However, this line still sits above her averages, and the matchup isn’t the best for Thomas.
In three games vs. the Las Vegas Aces this season, the forward has averaged 6.3 rebounds and 10 assists.
Thomas has gone under this RA mark in two of three matchups against Las Vegas. In the outlier, she needed 13 assists to finish with 19 RA.
Even at her peak, she struggled to cash this wager against the Aces.
I’m sure it has something to do with being matched up against Wilson, who’s the most dominant big in recent history.
Additionally, Thomas has been trending downward, hitting this under in three of her past four games while averaging 16.6 RA.
Citron over 16.5 points (-113): Citron may not be on a historic rookie run like Paige Bueckers is, but the third overall pick is starting to come into her own.
- Citron has scored 16+ points in eight of her past 10 games.
- During that span, she’s averaged 19.6 PPG while shooting above 50% from the field and from 3-point range.
On Thursday, she gets the chance to fill the stat sheet against the Connecticut Sun, who own the fourth-worst scoring defence in the league (86.2 opponent PPG).
In her game against Connecticut on Tuesday, Citron had 19 points on a subpar shooting night (7-for-17).
WNBA prop picks made at 9:06 a.m. ET on 08/21/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.