The red-hot Giancarlo Stanton headlines Wednesday’s best MLB home run picks.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Stanton mashed his 13th and 14th homers of the season last night, and now boasts a near-1.000 slugging percentage in August. The New York Yankee has a tough matchup against Tampa Bay’s Drew Rasmussen, but I still think he can come out on top.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 20, featuring a pick on Willy Adames.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Stanton to hit a home run (+320)
Stanton has improved month over month after a long IL stint to start the season and is going nuclear to close out August:
- June: .243/.333/.270, 0 HRs
- July: .284/.346/.635, 8 HRs
- August: .417/.512/.944, 6 HRs
The towering DH still strikes out a ton and walks a lot, which isn’t ideal for a play like this. But when he puts bat to ball, the results are undeniable.
Stanton doesn’t have enough PAs to qualify, but his .542 xSLG, 19.8% barrel rate, and 56.3% hard-hit rate would all rank in the 90th percentile or higher, per Baseball Savant.
Now, he’s tasked with cracking Rasmussen, who owns a 2.60 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.
I don’t think a homer from Stanton is such a crazy ask, given Rasmussen’s questionable underlying metrics and the hitter-friendly environment of this game.
- Rasmussen’s 3.44 xERA is much higher than his standard number.
- His whiff rate, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate all rank in the bottom-25th percentile.
- George M. Steinbrenner Field, the Yankees’ spring training facility and Rays’ temporary home, is ceding 33% more HRs to right-handed hitters than average, per Baseball Savant’s park factors.
Key stat: Stanton is slugging .643 against RHP this year and .613 on the road.
Best HR predictions
Adames to hit a home run (+265): It’s hard to get behind anyone on the Giants right now, but Adames checks a lot of the boxes I’m looking for.
- Opponent: Lefty JP Sears is pitching for the San Diego Padres. His 1.8 HR/9 rate would be the second-highest in MLB if he had enough innings to qualify.
- Platoon advantage: The right-hitting Adames is slugging .525 vs. LHP since the all-star break with two home runs.
- Location: Petco Park has been the fifth-most homer-friendly venue for RHHs over the last three seasons.
Sears gives up a ton of hard contact and doesn’t issue many free passes. Adames is slumping big time this month, but still has some pop in his bat and the ability to capitalize on a bad pitch.
MLB home run picks made at 11:03 a.m. ET on 08/20/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.