The Toronto Blue Jays and Pittsburgh Pirates meet for a Wednesday matinee at PNC Park.
The pregame narrative: Toronto is favoured to win this rubber match behind Chris Bassitt, even though the righty has awful road numbers. Pittsburgh counters with Johan Oviedo, who’s making his second big league start since recovering from 2023 Tommy John surgery.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Pirates for Aug. 20, featuring Oviedo and George Springer.
Blue Jays best bets vs. Pirates
Best bet: Over 8.5 runs (-112)
On a good day, Toronto’s offence is capable of clearing this number on its own.
The Jays lead MLB in batting average (.299), slugging percentage (.501), K rate (17.1%) and wRC+ (141) since the all-star break, and rank second in runs per game (5.94).
Unsurprisingly, taking the over during this stretch has been quite profitable.
- Toronto is 19-12 on overs since the ASG.
- That includes a 5-0 overs record when Bassitt is pitching.
Plenty of offence has become the norm, and I don’t expect Oviedo to quiet Toronto’s bats.
The righty has a career 4.36 ERA and was lifted after one inning in his return to MLB on Aug. 4, giving up two runs while walking three on 43 pitches.
And while Pittsburgh’s lineup is far from imposing, it should chip in on this effort.
Bassitt has gotten hit hard on the road, posting an unsightly 6.39 ERA across 11 starts.
Opponents are batting .298 against him, and his K rate plummets when he’s away from Rogers Centre (9.6 K/9 at home, 7.0 on the road).
Key stat: Overs are 12-8-1 in games where Toronto is a road favourite. That’s the second-best mark in MLB, per Team Rankings.
Quick picks
Oviedo under 3.5 Ks (-129): This is a small number for a starter, but Oviedo has never been a big swing-and-miss arm and now gets the toughest matchup in baseball.
- The righty has a career 7.9 K/9 rate, and has never crested the 50th percentile for K rate (per Baseball Savant).
- Toronto has the lowest K rate in MLB on the season, since the all-star break, and against RHP.
Oviedo did rack up a 15-to-3 K/BB rate over two minor league starts this month, but I won’t put much stock into that.
The 27-year-old relies heavily on a two-pitch mix, throwing a four-seam fastball and slider. Toronto has the eighth-lowest whiff rate vs. four-seamers, and the lowest vs. sliders against RHP.
Springer over 1.5 bases (-120): Toronto’s leadoff man has picked up where he left off since returning from a 16-game injury absence, going 5-for-16 with two home runs.
The veteran outfielder was having a monster July before getting injured — .371/.451/.640 slash line, seven home runs — and should have plenty of opportunities to get after Oviedo today.
Springer has destroyed four-seamers from righties all season, batting .278 with a .556 SLG against that offering. And his expected numbers (.302 xBA, .676 xSLG) suggest there’s plenty of room for improvement.
On the whole, his numbers against RHP (.313/.397/.530) are much better than his numbers against LHP (.228/.345/.467).
Blue Jays best bets made at 9:02 a.m. ET on 08/20/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.