Sitting just outside the current MLB playoff picture, the Cincinnati Reds vie for a series win on Tuesday night against the Los Angeles Angels.
The pregame narrative: The Reds have won seven games in a row against the Angels dating back to 2023, including a 4-1 victory last night. Hunter Greene (5-3, 2.47 ERA) gets the start on Tuesday for the visiting Reds in his second outing back from the injured list.
Check out my Reds vs. Angels predictions, featuring a fade of Mike Trout in this +255 SGP.
Reds vs. Angels predictions
Parlay: Reds -0.5 F5 run line | Greene over 6.5 Ks | Trout under 1.5 bases (+255)
Reds -0.5 – first five innings (-106): I have more to say about Greene later on, but he’s also a huge reason why I like this pick.
When healthy, Greene is among the most imposing, dominating pitchers in the sport.
Among 99 pitchers with 200+ innings over the past two years, Greene ranks fifth in ERA (2.67), seventh in WHIP (0.991) and 12th in K/9 (10.33).
This year, he’s allowed two or fewer runs in 10 of 12 outings.
On the flip side of this matchup is Kyle Hendricks, who has a 5.45 ERA in seven starts since July 1. He has allowed three or more runs in 15 of 23 outings.
Also, the Reds have fared well against Hendricks in the past. Their active lineup is 25-for-74 (.338) with an .887 OPS against him.
MLB SGP legs
Greene over 6.5 Ks (-215): No matter what way you slice it, the Angels are the best possible matchup for Greene to rack up strikeouts.
The Halos have MLB’s highest K rate overall (26.0%), in the second half (26.6%) and against righties (25.8%).
Tonight will be Greene’s first start against the Angels, and I don’t think this lineup will enjoy the ride.
Greene sits at 99.3 mph on his fastball, per Baseball Savant, and ranks in the 85th percentile or better in whiff rate, chase rate, K% and BB%.
Backing Greene over 7.5 Ks pushes this parlay to +340, and I thought about it.
But since it’s only his second start back from a two-month injury absence, I’d rather play it safer in case he’s on a shorter leash.
Greene is 7-5 vs. this number this season with a 10.8 K/9.
Trout under 1.5 total bases (-186): Trout is one of the most prominent three-true-outcome hitters, but only two of those outcomes are happening on a regular basis right now.
In his past 17 games, Trout has one home run, 16 walks and 28 strikeouts. That’s a 63.5% three-true-outcome rate, which is nearly double MLB’s average (33.4%).
With so many walks and strikeouts lately, Trout is consistently failing to give himself a chance to collect bases. After all, he’s hardly ever putting the ball in play.
I expect more issues in that regard with the high-strikeout arm of Greene on the mound. Trout has gone 10 consecutive games without an extra-base hit.
Reds vs. Angels predictions made at 1:13 p.m. ET on 08/19/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.