In one of the final games on Monday’s MLB slate, the Cleveland Guardians are in the desert to face the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The pregame narrative: Two starts removed from a no-hitter bid that fell two outs short, Gavin Williams looks to continue building on a strong run for Cleveland. Both the Guardians and Diamondbacks were on the wrong end of three-game sweeps over the weekend.
Check out my Guardians vs. Diamondbacks predictions, including props on Jose Ramirez and Geraldo Perdomo.
Guardians vs. Diamondbacks predictions
Parlay: Ramirez over 1.5 bases | Perdomo under 1.5 bases | Guardians +0.5 F5 run line (+300)
Ramirez over 1.5 total bases (-113): Ramirez has nearly identical OPS outputs against righties and lefties, but the switch-hitting third baseman typically flashes more power from the left side.
- vs. RHPs (as LHB): .525 SLG, 5.8 HRs per 100 plate appearances.
- vs. LHPs (as RHB): .493 SLG, 2.6 HRs per 100 plate appearances.
Ramirez has also put in some great work since the all-star break, with a 143 wRC+ in 28 games. He’s 15-13 vs. this prop in that span.
Also, the five-time Silver Slugger is 5-for-9 with a double and a home run against Arizona’s Zac Gallen.
MLB SGP legs
Perdomo under 1.5 total bases (-235): Perdomo is a tough guy to fade these days, as he has a 170 wRC+ since the all-star break (10th in MLB).
But a lot of Perdomo’s offensive value comes from his plate discipline rather than his pop.
- Perdomo ranks in the 94th percentile or better in K%, BB%, chase rate and whiff rate, per Baseball Savant.
- He ranks in the 42nd percentile in xSLG (.417), and is modestly over-performing based on his actual SLG (.437).
- Perdomo has gone under 1.5 bases in 13 of his past 22 games.
Perdomo’s elite plate discipline blends well with the wildness of Williams, who has by far the highest walk rate of any qualified starter (4.71 BB/9).
It wouldn’t be surprising for Perdomo to reach safely without putting the ball in play, thus failing to collect any bases along the way.
Guardians +0.5 – first five innings (-139): Once this game gets to the bullpens, it’s anyone’s guess what will happen. But I think Williams gives the Guardians a good chance to win or tie the first five innings.
In 13 starts since the beginning of June, Williams has a 2.75 ERA. The Guardians are only 5-8 in those games, but the right-hander is 3-1 in his decisions.
That’s why I’m taking the bullpen out of the equation by backing Cleveland on an F5 line rather than a full-game line.
Gallen, who’s limping through a career-worst year, has a 5.13 ERA in 13 starts since the beginning of June. He ranks in the 17th percentile in xERA (4.87) and the 25th percentile in xBA (.266).
Guardians vs. Diamondbacks predictions made at 3:33 p.m. ET on 08/18/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.