The Toronto Blue Jays will get their first look at Pittsburgh Pirates phenom Paul Skenes on Monday night in their series opener at PNC Park.
The pregame narrative: Skenes, the odds-on favourite to win the NL Cy Young award, has never faced Toronto — and this should be a great battle for both sides. The Blue Jays have the best team OPS in the second half (.877).
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Pirates for Aug. 18, featuring Skenes and Bo Bichette.
Blue Jays best bets vs. Pirates
Best bet: Under 3.5 runs – first five innings (-143)
For as hot as the Blue Jays’ bats have been since the all-star break, I think the starting pitchers can win out in the early going of this game.
Skenes’ resume speaks for itself, as the reigning NL Rookie of the Year paces the majors in ERA (2.13).
He also has an NL-low 2.52 FIP, with two or fewer runs allowed in 20 of his 25 starts.
Then there’s Kevin Gausman, 11 years older than Skenes, who’s having a solid year and currently trending up.
Gausman has a 2.54 ERA over his past nine starts. This under is only 3-6 in that span, but that’s because of how strong the Blue Jays’ offence has been.
I can see Skenes keeping the Blue Jays in check as they try to get a handle on his elite stuff. Ty France, formerly with the Mariners, is the only active Toronto player who’s faced Skenes already.
There shouldn’t be much to worry about offensively for the Pirates. Gausman is rolling, and Pittsburgh has one of the weakest lineups in the majors.
The Pirates are dead last in MLB in slugging percentage (.346) and F5 runs per game (1.98), per Team Rankings.
Key stat: The under on this 3.5-run F5 total is 17-8 in Skenes’ 25 starts this year.
Quick picks
Blue Jays moneyline (-110): I’m glad that the vast majority of baseball fans no longer put much weight in the pitcher win stat. It simply wouldn’t be fair to Skenes.
Despite the fireballer’s league-best 2.13 ERA, Pittsburgh is just 12-13 in his starts.
Gausman, by comparison, has a 3.79 ERA. Toronto is 14-10 in his outings.
Starting pitchers still have a lot of say over how a game plays out, but bullpens and batting orders matter a lot, too. The Jays’ bullpen ERA has been better (4.07 vs. 4.24), and the offensive lineups just aren’t comparable.
Pittsburgh is 1-7 with a -36 run differential in its past eight games.
Skenes under 6.5 Ks (-163): After staring down Skenes’ strikeout prop markets for quite some time, I decided I’m willing to pay a huge premium to fade him.
That’s how bullish I am on Toronto’s exceptionally responsible lineup.
Among all MLB teams, the Jays have the lowest K rate (17.4%) and whiff rate (21.0%), per Baseball Savant.
They also have the highest chase contact rate (63.7%) and the second-highest in-zone contact rate (85.0%).
This is a team that puts the bat on the ball better than anyone. Skenes is averaging 6.6 Ks per start this year, and Toronto should put him below his typical output.
Blue Jays best bets made at 12:20 p.m. ET on 08/18/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.