It’s been a little while since Manny Machado has homered, but he’s a worthwhile pick to leave the yard on Monday night.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Machado is due for some damage after weeks of hard contact with nothing to show for it. His San Diego Padres host the San Francisco Giants in an all-NL West clash.
Check out the best MLB home run best bet and analysis for Aug. 18.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Machado to hit a home run (+320)
After homering seven times last month, Machado is homerless in August. But he’s still hitting the ball really hard.
- Machado’s 52.8% hard-hit rate ranks in the 96th percentile, and he’s up to a 55% hard-hit rate this month.
- Somehow, he is just 1-for-7 (with a single) on fly balls that have travelled at least 340 feet.
Machado will face Giants starter Robbie Ray, who he homered against back in June.
In terms of career-long numbers, Machado is just 5-for-19 (.263) vs. Ray … but three of those hits left the yard.
From a power perspective, Machado’s slump isn’t as rough as it seems. He’s quite capable of breaking out against Ray.
Key stat: Machado ranks in the 90th percentile or better in xSLG (.528), xBA (.298) and average exit velocity (93.0 mph).
MLB home run best bet made at 12:10 p.m. ET on 08/18/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.