The San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers continue their must-see series on Saturday night.
The pregame narrative: Los Angeles put an end to San Diego’s five-game winning streak yesterday, and drew level in the NL West standings at 69-53. The Dodgers are slight favourites to win tonight behind Blake Snell, who has generated a ton of strikeouts since returning from the IL this month.
Check out my Padres vs. Dodgers predictions, including props on Snell and Freddie Freeman.
Padres vs. Dodgers predictions
Parlay: Dodgers F5 +0.5 | Snell over 4.5 Ks | Freeman over 0.5 RBI (+370)
Dodgers F5 +0.5 (-195): Pitching opposite Snell is Dylan Cease, a hard-throwing righty with big swing-and-miss upside.
Cease is capable of keeping the Dodgers’ bats quiet, but things haven’t gone so well for him on the road this year.
He’s allowed a 5.52 ERA and a .259 opponent batting average across 12 starts. Compare that to his numbers at home — 3.61 ERA, .215 OBA — and you have some pretty drastic splits.
Cease has also struggled mightily in L.A., giving up 14 runs across 13.1 IP in his last three starts at Dodger Stadium. Unsurprisingly, the home team covered this line each time.
I can’t see the pitcher out-duelling Snell, who won the 2023 NL Cy Young award with the Padres, and has a 2.37 ERA this year.
MLB SGP legs
Snell over 4.5 Ks (-245): Snell threw north of 85 pitches in both of his outings this month, logging eight Ks against the Tampa Bay Rays and 10 against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Toronto has the lowest K rate in baseball against LHP, so that’s a huge accomplishment.
San Diego has the second-lowest K rate, but I’m only asking Snell to reach half that number. And he should be able to, given his success against the Padres’ current lineup.
In 97 plate appearances, he’s generated a 27.8% K rate and 30.5% whiff rate.
Freeman over 0.5 RBI (+170): I think the Dodgers are going to get after Cease and expect Freeman to be one of the main perpetrators.
- Freeman is batting .345 over his last 15 games with 13 RBI.
- He is slashing .309/.378/.473 against RHP this year and is 6-for-16 against Cease with a .346 xBA in those at-bats.
Hitting ahead of Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts, who is now heating up with a .405 OBP in his last nine games, is a great spot for run production.
The bottom of L.A.’s lineup can also get aboard with Andy Pages and Alex Freeland sporting respectable .314 and .293 OBPs this month.
Padres vs. Dodgers predictions made at 10:50 a.m. ET on 08/16/2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.