The Toronto Blue Jays can win their series today against the Texas Rangers.
The pregame narrative: Toronto needed a heroic effort led by Alejandro Kirk in yesterday’s 6-5 comeback win. This afternoon, I’m backing Kirk to stay hot at the dish against left-handed Patrick Corbin.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Rangers for Aug. 16, featuring predictions on Kirk and Eric Lauer.
Blue Jays best bets vs. Rangers
Best bet: Lauer over 15.5 outs (+115)
It’s been a great first season for Lauer with Toronto, even though the lefty has hardly played at Rogers Centre.
He’s only appeared six times at home (28.0 innings) vs. 13 appearances on the road (55.0 innings).
Despite that, he has an overall ERA of 2.82 this season, and he’s arguably been Toronto’s best starter.
Lauer’s stats are still better at home, too. His ERA drops to 2.57 with an elite 10.3 K/9. The opposition is batting .155 and he has more Ks (32) than total bases allowed (28).
It’s not the biggest sample size, but all of that gives me great confidence that Lauer can work deep against a Rangers squad that struggles against LHPs.
Key stat: Texas has the third-worst OPS in the league against lefties (.630).
Jays vs. Rangers picks
Kirk over 0.5 RBI (+145): I’m looking to buy in on Kirk for a few reasons:
- With left-handed Corbin on the mound, Kirk should be slotted into the five hole to clean up behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. We saw the benefits of that on Friday.
- Kirk is 3-for-3 off Corbin in his career with two doubles.
- Corbin has given up eight runs over his last three starts (12.1 IP), equating to a 5.84 ERA (6.03 FIP).
I expect a ton of action on the basepaths, and Kirk is lined up to be in a premium position to cash in runners.
There’s no need to overthink this one, especially at this price.
Blue Jays best bets made at 8:40 a.m. ET on 08/16/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.