Everton vs. Leeds United best bet Aug. 18: EPL Matchday Week 1 picks and predictions

EPL predictions

The 2025-26 English Premier League season kicks off with Matchday 1 this weekend.

The pregame narrative: There are 20 teams in action for the weekly slate, including a club that has rejoined the Premiership. Everton welcomes recently promoted Leeds United, which is a favourite for its first game back in the EPL after two years.

Check out my EPL predictions and best bets for the season-opening soccer action, featuring a pick on the Manchester United vs. Arsenal match.

EPL predictions

Best bet: Manchester United/Arsenal both teams to score (-143)

Arsenal was third in scoring last season, finishing with 69 goals despite dealing with numerous injuries.

Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard missed a majority of the season but come into 2025-26 at full health.

Both teams also made a splash during the transfer window.

  • Man U signed three attackers (Bryan Mbeumo, Benjamin Sesko, Matheus Cunha), all for $50 million or more.
  • Arsenal, meanwhile, bought centre forward Viktor Gyokeres for $75 million.

We have yet to see what these additions can provide on offence, but I don’t think it’s crazy to expect a lot of goals from these clubs to start the new season.

Mbeumo and Cunha, the signings who already played in England, had 35 tallies and 13 assists in the Premier League last season.

Gyokeres had 39 goals and seven assists in 33 games in Liga Portugal last season, so he’s looking like a strong candidate to fill Arsenal’s gap up top.

Both sides made huge offensive moves, and I can’t help but think this is going to be a barn burner.

Key stat: This bet cashed in four of the last six matches between Manchester United and Arsenal.

EPL betting markets

Premier League picks: Matchday 1

Everton to win (+195): I love the underdog value here on Everton.

Midway through last season, the Toffees made a change, re-hiring David Moyes as manager. And that’s when things turned around.

  • Everton picked up points in 15 matches while losing just four from that point on.
  • That included eight wins and draws over clubs such as Liverpool and Arsenal, the EPL’s top two finishers.

Everton sees the potential and has spent some money this transfer window to bolster its squad. Attacker Thierno Barry joins the team from Villarreal in La Liga, while Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall joins the midfield from Chelsea.

These two players cost close to $60 million combined.

Leeds earned promotion to the top flight by winning the Championship. The club is expected to do well this season, but I’ll side with the experienced EPL team that finished the 2024-25 campaign in strong form.

Over the last 19 games of the 2024-25 season, Everton had the ninth-most points in the EPL (31).

EPL predictions made at 8:43 a.m. on 08/15/25.

+ posts

Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.