The red-hot Pete Alonso headlines Thursday’s MLB home run picks.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Alonso has six home runs this month and now faces a struggling righty at home. That’s more than enough to grab my attention. Elsewhere, Ketel Marte has a great shot to hit his third straight home run.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 14.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Alonso to hit a home run (+275)
Alsono is firing on all cylinders in August, slashing .386/.408/.886 with six home runs in 11 games.
That’s a good place to start, and his matchup against Atlanta’s Bryce Elder makes this pick even more enticing.
- Alonso is slugging .556 against righties this year, with 20 of his 28 home runs coming against RHPs.
- Elder has a 6.12 ERA this season and ranks in the 40th percentile or worse for K rate, hard-hit rate, barrel rate and average exit velocity.
- Alsonso is 3-for-8 against Elder with a home run and a 1.162 xSLG.
The Braves’ righty leans heavily on a two-pitch mix, throwing a sinker 42% of the time and a slider 37% of the time.
Alsono is slugging .663 against sinkers and .554 against sliders from RHPs, according to Baseball Savant.
Key stat: Alonso’s 14.13 at-bats-to-HR ratio ranks fifth among all active players.
Best HR predictions
Marte to hit a home run (+275): Like Alonso, Marte is wielding a white-hot bat in August, slashing .364/.451/.636 and is 6-for-9 in his last two games with a pair of home runs.
The switch-hitting second baseman can produce from both sides of the plate, but does his best job batting from the left against righties:
- .321 batting average
- .604 slugging percentage
- 17 of his 23 home runs
Now at mile-high altitude, against a righty with a 7.89 ERA, Marte should be able to blast one into the seats of Coors Stadium.
Bradley Blalock has given up three home runs in his last two games and got hit hard by the Diamondbacks in Arizona just five days ago: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 5 ER.
Marte went 2-for-3 with a double in that contest.
MLB home run picks made at 1:00 p.m. ET on 08/14/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.