The Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago Cubs play out their rubber match at Rogers Centre on Thursday.
The pregame narrative: Fans in attendance for today’s matinee are treated to a pitcher’s duel between Max Scherzer and Matthew Boyd. Both arms are in a groove, and the odds reflect that. This matchup is a pick’em with an over/under of 8 runs.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Cubs for Aug. 14, featuring Scherzer and Ernie Clement.
Blue Jays best bets vs. Cubs
Best bet: Scherzer over 17.5 outs (-121)
Scherzer is improving with each start and is making a case to be Toronto’s Game 1 starter in the postseason.
The 41-year-old has four quality starts — six-plus innings and three or fewer earned runs — in his last five appearances.
Most recently, he held the Los Angeles Dodgers to two runs over 6.0 innings while fanning five.
The start before that, he held the Kansas City Royals to one run. And before that, he threw 7.0 innings with 11 strikeouts against the Detroit Tigers.
Scherzer doesn’t seem to have a leash on him in terms of a pitch count, throwing into the upper 90s twice in his last three starts.
Chicago doesn’t strike out much, but has struggled to hit right-handers since the all-star break, ranking 25th out of 30 teams in the following categories:
- Batting average (.231)
- Slugging percentage (.379)
- ISO (.147)
- wRC+ (94)
Scherzer has an 85th percentile hard-hit rate and an 86th percentile walk rate. He should be able to generate a ton of soft contact against a sputtering lineup and keep his pitch count low.
Key stat: Scherzer is 4-1 against this line in his last five starts.
Jays vs. Cubs picks
Clement 1+ RBI (+240): Rotowire projects Clement to hit seventh for the Jays today, right behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk.
Everyone in that trio has an OBP north of .330 and a wRC+ above 100 vs. LHPs. Guerrero (148) and Bichette (131) are well above league average in terms of wRC+ against southpaws.
But none of them hold a candle to what Clement is doing.
- Toronto’s utility man is slashing .345/.376/.583 against LHPs this season.
- His 163 wRC+ vs. LHPs ranks 16th in MLB, while his 10.7% K rate is 22nd.
Boyd has a 2.45 ERA and 1.05 WHIP this year and four scoreless appearances in his last six starts.
Those are stellar numbers, but Toronto is one of the league’s best teams against lefties, and Clement should have several opportunities at the plate with runners aboard.
This price is too good to pass up.
Blue Jays best bets made at 9:55 a.m. ET on 08/14/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.