Wednesday’s MLB home run picks have a bit more long-shot potential than usual, with one prediction sitting outside the 5-to-1 range.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Randy Arozarena and Jose Altuve have hit a bunch of home runs recently, and there are reasons to back both hitters tonight. Arozarena has a platoon advantage, while Altuve is facing a pitcher who coughs up more than his fair share of homers.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 13.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Arozarena to hit a home run (+333)
Let’s get the main concern out of the way from the jump: Arozarena is facing a pitcher on Wednesday who has only allowed two home runs in 62.1 innings.
Yes, Baltimore left-hander Trevor Rogers has done well to keep the ball in the yard, and his 1.44 ERA is awfully intimidating in the context of this wager. But there are still plenty of things to like about Arozarena’s opportunity tonight.
- Arozarena excels against lefties, posting an OPS north of .800 vs. LHPs in every year of his career. This season, he’s slugging .524 against southpaws.
- Since June 30, he has a .270/.338/.617 slash line with 15 homers in 37 games.
Also, despite his overall success, Rogers has been on the wrong end of a lot of hard contact. He’s allowing a 49.1% hard-hit rate, which ranks in MLB’s fourth percentile (per Baseball Savant).
Rogers tends to get a lot of ground balls, so the hard contact doesn’t hurt nearly as much. But if Arozarena can get something in the air, he just might be able to muscle it over the wall.
Arozarena has a career-high fly ball rate this year (28.3%). For context, the league-average fly ball rate is 24.0%.
Key stat: Arozarena ranks in the 84th percentile in average exit velocity (91.7 mph) and the 93rd percentile in hard-hit rate (52.1%).
Best HR predictions
Altuve to hit a home run (+550): Altuve is only 1-for-8 in his career against Red Sox starter Walker Buehler, which is the only flaw I can see with taking a long shot swing on this prop.
I’m not going to be deterred by a sample size of eight at-bats spaced out over several seasons, though. What these guys are up to right now matters a lot more to me.
Buehler has allowed a ton of home runs this year. His 1.71 HR/9 is sixth-highest among 95 pitchers with 100-plus innings of work.
As for Altuve, he’s been teeing off lately and has four HRs in his past 12 games. He’s well past his prime as a power hitter, but a mini tear like this is worth paying attention to.
And it’s not like Altuve is completely done as a power bat. He’s one of 40 players in the majors this year with more than 20 homers.
MLB home run picks made at 11:50 a.m. ET on 08/13/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.