The Toronto Blue Jays put their home-field dominance back to the test on Wednesday night against the Chicago Cubs.
The pregame narrative: After a 5-1 victory at Rogers Centre last night, the Jays moved to 39-19 (.672) at home this season. For context, Toronto only won 39 home games all of last year. As for the Cubs, losing on Wednesday would mark their third series loss in a row.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Cubs for Aug. 13, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Seiya Suzuki.
Blue Jays best bets vs. Cubs
Best bet: Suzuki over 1.5 bases (+120)
Suzuki had a pair of warning-track flyouts in Tuesday’s opener, which encapsulates his struggles this month.
The designated hitter is merely 7-for-30 (.233) with two extra-base hits in August. But the results don’t match his output.
According to Baseball Savant, Suzuki has posted a .311 xBA this month, as well as a 52% hard-hit rate. He has more barrels (eight) than hits (seven).
Barrels, for context, represent only the highest quality of contact based on launch angle and exit velocity. Most of them go for extra bases.
Hence why I’m not giving up on Suzuki. There’s more than meets the eye with his batted-ball profile.
I also don’t mind this matchup for him tonight against Toronto starter Kevin Gausman. Suzuki is 2-for-3 in his career off the veteran right-hander.
Gausman’s main putaway pitch to right-hitting batters is his splitter, and Suzuki has managed that offering well in 2025 (albeit in a limited sample). Suzuki is 4-for-9 with two home runs against splitters from RHPs.
Also, Suzuki is slugging .494 vs. four-seam fastballs from righties, and that’s the other pitch he’ll see most often from Gausman.
Key stat: Suzuki has a 19.1% barrel rate, which ranks in the 98th percentile. He also owns a 92nd-percentile xSLG (.536).
Jays vs. Cubs picks
Blue Jays moneyline (-137): Cubs starter Cade Horton is the only qualified starting pitcher who hasn’t allowed a run in the past month. So why am I fading his side tonight?
For one thing, I’m not sold on Horton sustaining this dominance against the red-hot Blue Jays.
Over the past two weeks, Toronto’s offence has a .325/.382/.567 slash line, leading the majors in each of those categories. The Jays also have an AL-low 16.6% strikeout rate in that span. They’re locked in.
During Horton’s scoreless streak, his .135 opponent batting average is far better than his xBA (.225). This could easily be a back-to-Earth start for him.
And the Cubs have struggled at the plate, posting a .665 OPS over the past two weeks (25th in MLB).
Guerrero over 1.5 hits (+180): I rarely look at this market for Guerrero because he has such a high walk rate.
But Vladdy has been tattooing the ball so consistently that I still think it’s worth taking a flier at this price.
Coming off a 3-for-4 night, Guerrero has gone over 1.5 hits in 12 of his past 22 games.
Since the all-star break, he’s 37-for-97 (.381), which equates to an average of 1.54 hits per game.
And considering Baseball Savant credits Guerrero with a .361 xBA in that span, this barrage of hits looks pretty legit.
Blue Jays best bets made at 9:33 a.m. ET on 08/13/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.