The Cincinnati Open round of 16 begins on Wednesday, with ATP No. 1 Jannik Sinner headlining the action.
The pregame narrative: Sinner has been unstoppable since the start of Wimbledon, and is a massive favourite over unseeded Adrian Mannarino. Barring an injury, the Italian will almost certainly win this match. The bigger question is how quickly he can get it done.
Check out my top Cincinnati Open predictions for Aug. 13, also featuring a pick on Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Benjamin Bonzi.
Cincinnati Open predictions
Best bet: Sinner/Mannarino under 18.5 games (-103)
Sinner is the best player in the world right now, and it’s not that close.
The reigning US Open, Australian Open and Wimbledon champion would be holding all four slams simultaneously had he not blown a two-set lead to Carlos Alcaraz at Rolland Garros.
I can forgive him for losing to the Spaniard — and clear-cut World No. 2 — on his native surface.
Mannarino has a pair of seeded victories over Tommy Paul and Tomas Machac to his name at this event. That’s nice, but I expect Sinner to pick him apart on Wednesday.
The 37-year-old Mannarino had to get through qualifiers to reach the main draw, meaning he’s played five matches in the past week, totalling over seven hours of court time.
Sinner, by contrast, has played two matches which lasted a total of 2 hours and 52 minutes.
Mannarino has a deadly kick serve as a lefty, which would pose problems for many players. But Sinner’s athleticism and reach are second to none, and he should be able to break his opponent’s serve frequently.
Key stat: Mannarino has lost 13 straight sets to ATP top-10 ranked players, most recently getting swept 6-2, 6-3 by Ben Shelton in the National Bank Open.
Auger-Aliassime vs. Bonzi best bet
Bonzi +2.5 games (+107): Bonzi is having a great start to this tournament, ousting No. 8 seed Lorenzo Musetti and No. 25 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas.
He’s now 4-1 in his last five matches against ATP top-50-ranked players, with additional wins over Matteo Arnaldi and Daniil Medvedev.
Bonzi also was playing World No. 4 Taylor Fritz tough in April at the Madrid Masters, but was forced to retire ahead of a deciding third set due to injury.
So you can see why I’m keen on backing the Frenchman as an underdog against a sputtering Auger-Aliassime.
FAA has lost three of his last six matches, and has historically been a poor outdoor hardcourt player (58.93 win percentage).
Cincinnati Open predictions made at 1:03 p.m. on 08/12/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.