The Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago Cubs open up a three-game set at Rogers Centre on Tuesday.
The pregame narrative: Toronto and Chicago lead their respective divisions largely thanks to owning elite offences. Tonight’s matchup should feature more fireworks with a pair of volatile arms — Jose Berrios (TOR) and Ben Brown (CHI) — on the mound.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Cubs for Aug. 12, featuring prop bets on Bo Bichette and Kyle Tucker.
Blue Jays best bets vs. Cubs
Best bet: Bichette over 1.5 bases (-106)
There’s a lot to like about this wager.
- Bichette has been rolling since the all-star break, slashing .356/.393/.574 through 23 games.
- In that span, he is 14-9 against this line with more extra-base hits (14) than strikeouts (11).
- Bichette has a 4% walk rate since the ASG, and Brown ranks in the 76th percentile for walk rate (6.6%) on the season. That bodes well for a bases prop.
Brown is a 6-foot-6 righty with a two-pitch mix. He throws a four-seam fastball 57% of the time and a curveball 38% of the time — Bichette has had success against those offerings from RHPs:
- Vs. 4-seam fastballs: .273 BA (.290 xBA), .409 SLG (.462 xSLG)
- Vs. curveballs: .444 BA (.402 xBA), .556 SLG (.673 xSLG)
The Cubs starter has a high K rate, but struggles to limit hard contact (eighth percentile barrel rate, 11th percentile hard-hit rate), which has led to a bloated 6.04 ERA.
I love Bichette’s chances of taking him for a ride tonight.
Key stat: Bichette is averaging 2.2 total bases at home since the all-star break.
Jays vs. Cubs picks
Tucker to score (-108): Rotowire projects Tucker will bat second for Chicago on the road, which is a nice spot for run production.
The first-year Cub is in a bit of a rut right now, scoring just two runs in August. But he logged 14 runs in July with a .380 on-base percentage, and has stellar splits against RHPs this year.
- .272 BA
- .391 OBP
- .478 SLG
Berrios has a 5.71 ERA in his last seven starts and ranks in the bottom third percentile for xERA, xBA, whiff rate and barrel rate.
Tucker is 5-for-15 against Berrios with a walk and a HBP. He also has a .652 xSLG in those at-bats, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he scores himself with the long ball.
Over 9 runs (-110): Toronto leads MLB in batting average (.313), slugging percentage (.520) and wRC+ (149) since the all-star break.
The problem? It has a 4.77 ERA, which sits 25th.
Unsurprisingly, the Jays have been good to clear the game total in that stretch, with overs going 15-6-2.
Even if you exclude a three-game series against the Colorado Rockies when Toronto averaged 15 runs per game — clearing this total on its own each time — the Jays are 5-3-2 against this number in their last 10.
Brown and Berrios haven’t been at their best lately, and Chicago ranks second in runs per game this season. All signs point to a barn burner.
Blue Jays best bets made at 9:33 a.m. ET on 08/12/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.