Garrett Crochet leads the Boston Red Sox into an important series against the Houston Astros, and the southpaw is my featured MLB prop target on Monday night.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Crochet has been among the most dominant pitchers in baseball this year, and he’s striking opponents out in bunches right now. Out west, look for Luis Arraez to stay hot against a struggling ace in the Bay Area.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for Aug. 11, featuring a prediction on Nationals right-hander Cade Cavalli.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Crochet over 7.5 Ks (+102)
It’s a two-horse race for the American League Cy Young award, and Crochet is firmly in the running.
The AL leader in ERA (2.24) is also second in both total strikeouts (183) and K/9 (11.1). The first year of his tenure with the Red Sox couldn’t be going any better.
Tonight, Crochet faces an Astros team that isn’t known to strike out much. But he’s got the goods to keep this team guessing.
- Last year, as a member of the White Sox, Crochet went 2-0 vs. this prop in a pair of starts against the Astros. He had 17 Ks in just 10.0 innings during those games.
- He has 13 Ks over just 40 plate appearances vs. the Astros’ active lineup (32.5 K%).
- Crochet is averaging 8.0 Ks per start through 23 outings this year.
The left-hander ranks in the 85th percentile in chase rate and the 79th percentile in whiff rate, per Baseball Savant.
Crochet also paces the majors in innings (148.1), which is a notable contrast from the innings cap the White Sox had him on last season. In fact, Crochet had fewer innings over 32 starts last year (146.0 IP) than he has now.
Boston’s trust in him to work deep into games serves to increase his opportunities to rack up strikeouts.
Key stat: Crochet is 9-3 vs. this prop in his past 12 starts.
Best MLB picks
Cavalli over 4.5 Ks (+138): The Royals have one of the lowest strikeout rates in MLB, but this line looks very playable for a guy whose stuff is this nasty.
Cavalli wields two fastball types that average north of 97 mph, and he has one solid putaway pitch for hitters on either side of the plate (knuckle curve for righties, changeup for lefties).
In his 2025 season debut last week, Cavalli had six strikeouts on 88 pitches over 4.1 innings. He generated a 36.5% whiff rate, which far exceeds the MLB average (25.0%).
Injuries have plagued the 26-year-old, who has only made two big-league starts in his career. But there’s a reason he was a first-round pick in 2020, as well as a consensus top-100 prospect in 2022-23.
Cavalli has an 11.0 K/9 in 64 career minor league starts, and I think there’s value taking a plus-money flier on him Monday.
Arraez over 1.5 hits (+163): This is one of my favourite props when Arraez is facing a pitcher who rarely issues free passes.
Because that means the free-swinging, high-contact hitter will have ample chances to keep the ball in play and cash this bet.
San Francisco’s Logan Webb fits that profile with his 5.5% walk rate (11th-lowest among 56 qualified pitchers). Webb has also given up a ton of hits lately, allowing 51 over his past 40.0 innings.
Webb is viewed as an ace, but his .262 xBA this season (29th percentile) isn’t daunting.
Especially when you consider that Arraez is batting 9-for-17 (.529) in this matchup.
Arraez, who has the lowest strikeout rate in MLB, is 12-10 vs. this prop in his past 22 games. Tonight, he’ll try for a fourth straight multi-hit performance.
MLB prop picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 08/11/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.