The Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres play the rubber match of their weekend series on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: Boston dominated the opener, but San Diego struck back with a one-run win. The Red Sox bring a pitching edge with them into today’s matchup, and are my pick to win. Additionally, I’m backing the under on the total after a pair of higher-scoring games.
Check out my Red Sox vs. Padres predictions, including a prop bet on Trevor Story.
Red Sox vs. Padres predictions
Parlay: Red Sox ML | Under 9.5 runs | Story under 1.5 total bases (+360)
Red Sox ML (+118): Brayan Bello has been stellar for the Red Sox, and I expect that to continue on Sunday.
Here’s how he’s performed since the start of July:
- 5-2 record
- 2.42 ERA
- 3.89 FIP
He enters this contest after one of his best outings of the season. Bello ceded zero earned runs across six innings in a winning effort against the Kansas City Royals.
Padres pitcher Dylan Cease hasn’t performed nearly as well. He has a 4.78 ERA and 4.26 FIP since the beginning of July.
Boston also boasts a better offence. The Red Sox are fourth in runs per game (5.01), while the Padres are a lowly 24th (4.13).
MLB SGP legs
Under 9.5 runs (-250): There are several reasons to expect a lower-scoring affair in this one.
Bello’s recent results play largely into this pick. The Red Sox have gone under this total in seven of their last 10 games.
The under on this total has also been a common occurrence when Cease takes the mound. San Diego has gone under this mark in 10 of his last 14 starts.
The Padres have been one of the best under teams this season, sporting the fifth-highest under rate in the MLB (56.6%).
Playing at Petco Park is always a plus for an under, too, as it’s one of the most pitcher-friendly fields per MLB Park Factors.
Story under 1.5 total bases (-245): I’m expecting very little from Story despite backing Boston to win.
The Red Sox shortstop has struggled in San Diego. He has no hits in the series thus far and has failed to beat this prop in three of his last five games.
His head-to-head history against Cease is very troublesome. Story is 1-for-7 against the right-hander with five strikeouts.
Story also has some stark home-road splits, which I’m looking to take advantage of.
He owns a strong .283 batting average at hitter-friendly Fenway Park, but a noticeably worse .229 average on the road.
Red Sox vs. Padres predictions made at 9:37 a.m. ET on 08/10/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.