I’m targeting a pair of Miami Marlins players in Thursday’s top MLB prop picks.
Today’s MLB props narrative: The Marlins have an excellent matchup against washed-up Carlos Carrasco and the struggling Atlanta Braves, making their top-of-the-order bats strong choices on the prop markets today.
Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Aug. 7, featuring predictions on Kyle Stowers, Xavier Edwards and Josh Naylor.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Stowers over 1.5 total bases (+120)
Stowers is destroying the ball, and he’ll enjoy a platoon advantage for however long Carrasco is on the mound. After that, he gets Atlanta’s sputtering bullpen.
He has a prime opportunity to feast and is a hammer play at plus money.
If you look beyond a small one-week sample, Stowers has been on a tear anyway you slice it.
- 2025 season: .935 OPS (career-high)
- Last 30 days: 1.207 OPS
- Last 15 days: .921 OPS
- vs. RHPs: .993 OPS
He’s coming off a monster July, batting .364, slugging .818 and smashing 10 bombs.
Carrasco is making his second start for the Braves, and he impressively turned in a quality start at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.
But I’m not swayed by that. The 38-year-old had an ERA north of 6.00 over 41 starts the previous two seasons.
Carrasco struggled in limited time with the New York Yankees before joining Atlanta and enters tonight’s start in the bottom 20th percentile in K rate, barrel rate and fastball velocity.
Atlanta’s bullpen has a 6.72 ERA in the second half with an 8.0 K-BB%. Only the Colorado Rockies have been worse.
Key stat: Stowers is 12-8 vs. this line over his past 20 games.
Best MLB picks
Edwards over 0.5 runs (+110): The Marlins’ offence is not littered with household names, but the lineup has produced.
- The club has above-average marks in wRC+ in the second half (108) and vs. right-handed pitching (104) this season.
- Miami is just outside the top 10 in homers and on-base percentage post-ASG, while ranking eighth in ISO.
This team isn’t a pushover and, in fact, is comfortably ahead of Atlanta in the NL East.
Edwards is the club’s leadoff man and is pacing the team in hits, while ranking second to Stowers in runs and OBP.
The 25-year-old (batting .298/.361/.369) has really picked things up since June.
He’s got a .326/.382/.430 slash line over 54 games since then, scoring 36 times. That’s good for a 108-run pace over 162 games.
For context, only nine players topped that number last season.
Naylor over 0.5 RBI (+155): I love Naylor’s spot in the Seattle Mariners’ revamped lineup, batting cleanup behind Randy Arozarena, Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez.
The slugging first baseman is going to have a lot of opportunities to cash in and today’s matchup looks like a strong one for him.
Seattle faces Shane Smith and the Chicago White Sox. The rookie right-hander has hit a wall after posting a 2.68 ERA through 11 starts going into June.
Since then, he’s produced a 6.88 ERA in eight outings, allowing five-plus runs on four occasions.
Naylor is having a big start to the month, sporting a 1.011 OPS in August. Against righties, he’s batting .293/.376/.467 this season.
MLB prop picks made at 12 p.m. ET on 08/07/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.