Paul Skenes and the Pittsburgh Pirates open a four-game set against the Cincinnati Reds on Thursday night.
The pregame narrative: Last year, Skenes went 3-0 vs. the Reds while allowing just one run in 17.0 innings. Though Pittsburgh is 11 games behind Cincinnati in the standings, the Skenes effect has the Pirates favoured to win tonight’s home game.
Check out my Reds vs. Pirates predictions, featuring prop bets on Skenes and Elly De La Cruz.
Reds vs. Pirates predictions
Parlay: Skenes over 7.5 Ks | De La Cruz over 0.5 hits | Under 8.5 runs (+360)
Skenes over 7.5 Ks (-120): The Reds haven’t had the misfortune of facing Skenes yet this year, but their luck runs out tonight.
Skenes, the odds-on favourite to win the NL Cy Young award, dominated the Reds in three starts last season:
- 17.0 IP
- 10 hits
- 2 walks
- 1 run
- 25 Ks
In the most recent of those outings, which came in September, Skenes fanned nine batters over 5.0 scoreless innings … on just 73 pitches.
At 6.7 Ks per start, Skenes isn’t always rising to this strikeout total in 2025. But the Reds are a good matchup for him to exceed his average.
The Reds have the eighth-highest strikeout rate in the majors (22.9%). Also, Skenes has 18 Ks vs. Cincy’s active lineup in just 42 plate appearances (42.9 K%).
MLB SGP legs
De La Cruz over 0.5 hits (-162): Both right-hitting and left-hitting players are below the Mendoza Line against Skenes this year, who has a .187 opponent BA overall.
Still, this is a compelling leg to add to the SGP, as it vaults the price from +140 to +360.
The switch-hitting De La Cruz is better from the left side, where he has a .299/.389/.531 slash line this season. He’s 31-9 vs. this prop in his past 40 games.
Also, De La Cruz is 2-for-6 with a double and a walk vs. Skenes. Not bad, all things considered.
Under 8.5 runs (-200): The Reds/Pirates season series has been an absolute slog, with offence taking a back seat.
All six head-to-head matchups so far have gone under this number. The average total in those games was 5.3 runs.
Dating back to the start of June, nine of Skenes’ 11 starts have gone under an 8.5-run total. His presence is obviously a plus for run suppression, but there’s also not much to like about either offensive lineup.
Cincinnati and Pittsburgh rank 24th and 29th, respectively, in wRC+. The Pirates are also dead last in runs per game (3.54).
Reds vs. Pirates predictions made at 12:50 p.m. ET on 08/07/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.