Nick Kurtz and Salvador Perez are Wednesday night’s MLB home run picks.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: It’s not hyperbolic to say that Kurtz is MLB’s best hitter against right-handed pitching, and he’s worth a look tonight on his HR prop. Elsewhere, Perez is seeking his third homer in the first week of August.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 6.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Kurtz to hit a home run (+350)
You won’t see him in the postseason this year, so enjoy Kurtz’s epic rookie season while it lasts.
Last year’s fourth-overall draft pick has bashed 23 home runs for the Athletics, including a four-homer game less than two weeks ago.
Kurtz wasn’t called up right away, and he spent some time on the injured list earlier this year, so he isn’t a qualified hitter. Still, his 74-game sample is large enough to know he’s having an S-tier season.
Among players with 300-plus plate appearances, only Aaron Judge ranks ahead of Kurtz in SLG, wRC+ and ISO.
That’s right … guys like Shohei Ohtani, Cal Raleigh and Kyle Schwarber are in his rearview mirror.
Kurtz and the A’s will face Cade Cavalli tonight in DC, and I’m loving the matchup.
Cavalli, who was a consensus top-100 prospect in 2021-22, missed most of the past two seasons due to injury. This year, he posted a 6.09 ERA in 15 Triple-A starts before getting called up for his MLB season debut.
The left-hitting Kurtz has been punishing right-handed pitchers like no one else. His .351 BA and .749 SLG vs. righties this year are both the best marks in the majors.
Key stat: Kurtz has 11 HRs in his past 25 games, posting a .441/.527/.968 slash line in that span.
Best HR predictions
Perez to hit a home run (+540): Dustin May was a trade deadline reclamation project for the Red Sox, and he’ll make his first start for Boston tonight.
Given that May has allowed eight HRs in his past five starts, I think it makes sense to target someone in the Royals’ lineup.
Perez looks like a nice pick at this price, especially after homering in two of five games so far this month.
MLB’s co-leader in home runs in 2021 still has plenty of pop, evidenced by his .544 xSLG (94th percentile, per Baseball Savant).
May’s four-pitch mix includes a sweeper and all three fastball types (four-seamer, sinker, cutter). Against RHPs this season, Perez is slugging .546 on those offerings with 14 HRs.
MLB home run picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on 08/06/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.