American League East stars Gunnar Henderson and Jarren Duran highlight the top MLB prop picks for Tuesday’s slate.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Henderson has an appealing matchup and has been hot for months, while Duran’s move into a more friendly run-producing spot has yielded strong results.
Check out my favourite MLB prop bets on Aug. 5, featuring a prediction on Freddie Freeman.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Henderson over 1.5 total bases (-118)
The Baltimore Orioles have been a colossal disappointment, but they’ve received some strong individual performances from several players. Henderson is one of them.
A slow start following a spring injury has long been an afterthought, as the shortstop has been a beast at the plate after putting up a 7.9 fWAR season a year ago.
- Henderson is hitting .326/.398/.547 over the last 30 days.
- Going back even more, he has an .896 OPS since June 1 (he posted a mark of .893 in his monster 2024 year).
- The 24-year-old is hitting .316/.386/.536 with 10 of his 13 homers vs. right-handed pitching.
Henderson and the Orioles see a righty tonight, in the ultra-hittable Taijuan Walker of the Philadelphia Phillies.
Walker was serviceable in July in terms of run prevention, but he doesn’t miss bats and has allowed multiple homers in three consecutive starts.
He had an unsightly 7.10 ERA in 19 appearances last season and is a pitcher I’m looking to fade against good hitters.
Key stat: Tonight’s game is at Citizens Bank Park, where Walker has a 4.78 ERA in 12 appearances (six starts).
Best MLB picks
Freeman over 1.5 total bases (+104): I’m surprised Freeman can be had at plus money, so I’m all over this.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have a juicy matchup at home against the St. Louis Cardinals, who are starting Miles Mikolas.
- Mikolas has a 6.00 ERA on the road and has allowed 15 homers since the start of June.
- Since that time, he’s turned in a 5.81 ERA.
- Mikolas has faced Freeman more than any Dodgers hitter and the results haven’t been pretty: 1.426 OPS over 21 plate appearances.
Freeman hit a lull in June that dragged into July, but he’s long out of it.
The all-star first baseman is batting .385/.439/.615 over the last 15 days and has a team-best .993 OPS in the second half.
Freeman also smashes righties (.527 SLG) and has cleared this line in six straight games, making this a plus matchup.
Duran over 0.5 RBI (+145): The Boston Red Sox outfielder rakes at home, smashes righties and is coming off his best month of the season. There’s a lot to like here.
Duran has hit third or seventh in the lineup in eight consecutive games and either spot is fine. He has 10 extra-base hits and 10 RBI over that stretch.
As long as he’s out of the leadoff spot, where he’s spent a lot of time this season, Duran is worth a look on this market when the right conditions are present, as they are tonight.
- Duran in July: .317/.411/.683
- At home: .291/.362/.524
- Vs. RHPs: .294/.370/.527
The Red Sox see Kansas City Royals deadline addition Ryan Bergert, a righty with control issues who will be pitching at Fenway Park’s favourable hitting environment.
MLB prop picks made at 12:30 p.m. ET on 08/05/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.