The National Bank Open is on to the quarterfinals with plenty of stars still in the mix.
The narrative: Alexander Zverev is the No. 1 seed because of some key dropouts, and he’s favoured to advance past Alexei Popyrin. Also, Taylor Fritz and Andrey Rublev renew their rivalry with a spot in the semis on the line.
Check out my top National Bank Open quarterfinal predictions, featuring a pick on Alex de Minaur vs. Ben Shelton.
National Bank Open predictions
Best Bet: de Minaur -2 games (-120)
Both Shelton and de Minaur are at the top of their game right now, but I’ll side with the Australian for a few reasons:
- Since the return of hardcourt season, de Minaur is flawless, going 7-0 while covering this spread in each win.
- His only loss in his past 11 matches came against Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon.
- And he’s on a preferred playing surface. de Minaur is 190-91 in his career on outdoor hard courts and 38-11 since the start of last season.
Shelton is no slouch, don’t get me wrong. He’s at his highest-ever ranking (No. 7) and is a very respectable 81-44 on this court type.
But he’s needed all three sets in back-to-back wins. And because de Minaur had a walkover in the round of 32, Shelton has played two-plus hours of tennis more than his opponent at the National Bank Open.
The longer this match goes on, the more it should tilt in de Minaur’s favour. If the American struggles to break serve, we could see that rest advantage play a major role in this match.
Key stat: Shelton allows his opponents to hold 83.9% of their service games. In comparison, De Minaur allows a 68.9% hold rate.
National Bank Open best bet: Zverev vs. Popyrin
Zverev -1.5 sets (-106): Popyrin has gone through a pair of top-15 players (Medvedev, Rune) in the past two rounds and needed all three sets to win each match.
And things don’t get easier. Zverev is the highest-ranked of them all, holding the No. 3 ranking on the ATP Tour.
On top of that, he holds distinct advantages in this match:
- Zverev has a 68.1% career win rate on outdoor hard courts (14-4 in 2025).
- Popyrin has a 57.1% career win rate on the playing surface (5-7 in 2025).
- Zverev is 3-0 in his career vs. Popyrin, covering this spread in all three matches.
Overall, this season, the No. 3-ranked player is 38-14 while his counterpart has a sub-.500 record (15-17).
Zverev was also blessed with a short match in the round of 16 because of an early retirement.
He is in form and simply the more talented player. Plus, he has a rest advantage. This has all the makings of a tough outing for Popyrin.
Best bet: Rublev vs. Fritz
Over 23.5 games (-112): These two are very evenly matched, with Fritz holding a 5-4 edge in the head-to-head battle.
Not only that, but they’ve split their head-to-head games played at exactly 109 apiece.
In Fritz’s last match, he beat Jiri Lehecka in a very close contest that needed three tiebreakers.
Rublev was heading down the same path, going to two tiebreaks with Alejandro Davidovich Fokina before the Spaniard was forced to retire in the third set.
Both players are resilient and do a great job of holding serve.
On Tuesday, fans should be in for another exciting match between two players who are difficult to break.
Fritz and Rublev have combined to hold 93.7% of their service games at the National Bank Open.
National Bank Open predictions made at 10:50 a.m. on 08/04/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.