Andrew Vaughn has been a revelation for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he’s a worthwhile long shot to go deep on Monday night.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Milwaukee gave Vaughn a fresh start about a month ago, and it’s really paying off for both sides. He has an 1.130 OPS through 19 games with his new club.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 4, featuring a prediction on Nick Castellanos.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Vaughn to hit a home run (+525)
How about this summer resurgence by Vaughn?
The 2019 No. 3 overall pick wore out his welcome with the White Sox earlier this season, getting demoted to the minors and eventually traded to the Brewers.
After a few strong weeks with Triple-A Nashville, Vaughn was called up by the Brewers … and he’s more than earned his big-league reinstatement.
Through 19 games with Milwaukee, Vaughn has been blazing hot:
- 6 HRs
- .373 BA
- .701 SLG
- 58% hard-hit rate
Given that Vaughn had a .314 SLG in 48 games with the White Sox before the trade, he’s likely coming back to earth at some point. Then again, his batted-ball metrics have been very encouraging all season.
The stoic first baseman ranks in the 80th percentile or better in xSLG (.499), average exit velocity (92.2 mph) and barrel rate (13.9%).
He’ll face Braves starter Erick Fedde, who routinely gives up a lot of hard contact. So far this season, Fedde ranks in the 22nd percentile or worse in hard-hit rate (44.1%), xBA (.294) and average exit velocity (90.8 mph)
Key stat: Fedde has allowed nine HRs in his past six starts.
Best HR predictions
Castellanos to hit a home run (+333): For as bad as things have been for Baltimore starter Cade Povich, it should actually be worse.
In 13 outings, Povich has a 5.15 ERA and a .287 opponent BA. But those are both better marks than his xERA (6.33) and xBA (.294), as measured by Baseball Savant.
The left-hander has the daunting task of facing a loaded Phillies lineup, and I’m looking to buy in.
Kyle Schwarber (+175) is the obvious choice, but that’s too square for me to write about. I think Castellanos is an intriguing candidate based on his numbers at home and against southpaws.
- At Home: 222 PAs, .288/.329/.490 slash line, 10 HRs
- vs. LHPs: 132 PAs, .289/.341/.463 slash line, four HRs
Castellanos has gone deep in back-to-back home series. Here’s hoping he makes it three in a row tonight.
MLB home run picks made at 2:20 p.m. ET on 08/04/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.