After back-to-back series losses, the AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays look to right the ship with a three-game set against the Colorado Rockies.
The pregame narrative: Toronto is a road favourite on Monday night in a game with explosive scoring potential. Eric Lauer gets the ball for the Jays, searching to keep bats quiet in baseball’s most offence-friendly environment.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Rockies for Aug. 4, featuring Lauer and Alejandro Kirk.
Blue Jays picks vs. Rockies
Best Bet: Lauer over 4.5 Ks (+105)
From a strikeout standpoint, Lauer is a pretty unassuming guy.
His fastball averages about 92 mph, and he doesn’t have anything particularly devastating to pair it with.
Also, his career seemed to be on life support when he signed with the Jays this winter, after posting a 5.26 ERA in Houston’s minor-league system in 2024 (along with a 4.93 ERA in seven starts in Korea that year).
Branded as a bulk reliever out of the gate, Lauer eventually got his shot in the rotation and found a way to stick.
Since joining the rotation for good on June 11, Lauer is 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA (2.90 FIP) in nine starts. He has 51 strikeouts over 48.0 innings in that span.
His 9.6 K/9 in that span is better than the season-long rates for Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios.
Who could’ve predicted that?
Lauer is 6-2 vs. this prop in his past eight starts, and he’s got an excellent opportunity to keep that train rolling.
The left-hander largely thrives on a three-pitch mix of four-seamers, cutters and curveballs when right-hitting players are in the box (and he should see eight or nine in Colorado’s lineup tonight).
Against that pitch mix from LHPs, Colorado has the league’s fourth-highest whiff rate (26.3%) and fifth-lowest batting average (.223).
Key stat: The Rockies have the fourth-highest strikeout rate vs. left-handed pitchers (25.4%).
Quick picks
Kirk over 1.5 total bases (-120): Tonight’s game has a whopping 12-run projected total, which makes it difficult to find playable prices on overs in the offensive market.
But I like where Kirk sits, as a hitter who cashed this bet in six of 11 starts last month before a short stint on the injured list.
Kirk ranks in the 92nd percentile or better in xBA (.301), hard-hit rate (52.8%) and strikeout rate (9.7%), per Baseball Savant.
He’ll face Colorado right-hander Tanner Gordon, who has allowed a .373/.410/.651 slash line to right-hitting players through 13 career starts. That looks like a typo … but it’s not.
Blue Jays picks made at 9:19 a.m. ET on 08/04/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.