The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners close out a crucial AL West series on Sunday afternoon.
The pregame narrative: Texas and Seattle are both closely trailing the Houston Astros for first place in the division, making a win for either side crucial. A pitching edge makes the Rangers my pick to win a close, low-scoring contest.
Check out my Rangers vs. Mariners predictions, featuring Jacob deGrom.
Rangers vs. Mariners predictions
Parlay: Rangers ML | deGrom over 7.5 strikeouts | Under 9.5 runs (+350)
Rangers moneyline (-141): Backing Texas when deGrom is on the mound is usually a smart decision.
The Rangers are 13-8 when the dominant righty takes the mound this year, and he enters the action with an even more impressive 10-3 record.
deGrom completely stymied the Mariners’ lineup when he last faced the team on May 4. He pitched 5.0 innings of one-run ball in an 8-1 victory.
Seattle counters with Logan Evans, who is really struggling ahead of this contest.
In five starts since being recalled from Triple-A Tacoma, he sports a 5.63 ERA and a 5.47 FIP.
Unsurprisingly, Seattle has lost three of his five outings during this stretch.
MLB SGP legs
deGrom over 7.5 strikeouts (+138): deGrom isn’t having the best strikeout campaign of his career, but there’s reason to be optimistic about this line.
The Rangers’ ace is averaging a strong 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings this year, but that number falls short of his career rate of 10.8 K/9.
Still, deGrom is reaching eight-plus strikeouts at an impressive clip ahead of this contest. He’s usurped this total in each of his last three starts.
The Mariners present a juicy matchup for deGrom on a pair of fronts. Firstly, they average the fourth-most strikeouts per game (8.89).
Secondly, deGrom owns an impressive 24.7% strikeout percentage versus Seattle’s current lineup, according to Baseball Savant.
Under 9.5 runs (-335): Lastly, I’m not expecting either team to score a boatload of runs.
The Rangers enter this game as favourites, and that usually means a lower-scoring affair. The under has cashed in 33 of Texas’s 58 outings as a favourite this year (57.9%), the eighth-highest rate in the majors.
The Rangers aren’t a prolific offensive bunch by any stretch of the imagination. They rank an underwhelming 23rd in runs per game this season (4.12).
The under on this total has cashed in two of the first three games of this series, and in both of deGrom’s appearances against the Mariners this year.
Rangers vs. Mariners predictions made at 11:46 a.m. ET on 08/03/2025.
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Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.