The field at the National Bank Open is whittling itself down as the final four spots in the quarterfinal will be earned today.
The pregame narrative: Andrey Rublev is rebounding well from a poor performance in Washington and is a solid plus-money pick versus Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Taylor Fritz is worth backing as a significant favourite, while fellow American Frances Tiafoe is an underdog who has some bite.
Check out my top National Bank Open predictions for Aug. 3.
National Bank Open predictions
Best Bet: Rublev to win (+105)
There’s a little too much recency bias baked into this line.
Davidovich Fokina is playing better lately. He’s won six of his last seven matches thanks to a finals appearance in Washington, DC.
The Spaniard also won the only meeting between these two this year, scoring a straight-sets victory over Rublev at the Barcelona Open in April.
But a deeper look at these two suggests that Rublev actually holds the advantage.
Davidovich Fokina’s win against Rublev earlier this year is his only victory in their head-to-head history. Rublev owns a notable 5-1 head-to-head record, which includes a pair of wins on the hard courts.
Additionally, Rublev profiles as the more well-rounded player. While Davidovich Fokina is an elite returner, ranking sixth in return rating, his serve isn’t anything special. He ranks 60th in serve rating, according to ATPTour.com.
Rublev, meanwhile, is 20th in serve rating and 42nd in return rating.
Hard courts tend to suit a strong all-around game, and that’s why I prefer Rublev on this surface.
Key stat: Rublev beat Davidovich Fokina in straight sets when they played on the hard courts at the China Open in 2024.
Quick picks
Tiafoe +3.5 games (+100): Tiafoe has performed extremely well against this line since Wimbledon.
In his five hard-court matches since The Championships, Tiafoe has gone a sterling 5-0 as a 3.5-game underdog.
He isn’t having his best hard-court season at 9-6, but he is 4-1 straight up over his last five matches.
Tiafoe is playing Alex de Minaur, who’s coming off a tourney win in DC and has won seven consecutive matches. But Tiafoe profiles as his toughest test yet.
de Minaur hasn’t battled a top-15 competitor during his winning streak, and Tiafoe enters action as the No. 12 player in the world.
Tiafoe should keep it close and be spunky against de Minaur.
Fritz -1.5 sets (+100): Outside of a tight three-set loss to Davidovich Fokina in DC, Fritz has been rolling this hard-court season.
The top-ranked American won his other four matches in straight sets.
It’s been a continuation of strong play for Fritz after advancing to the Wimbledon semifinals before falling to Carlos Alcaraz.
His opponent, Jiri Lehecka, has been playing strong tennis. His lone loss since Wimbledon was a close three-set contest against the eventual winner at Washington, De Minaur.
But Fritz owns a distinct head-to-head advantage over Lehecka. The American has won all three meetings against the Czech, including a pair of straight-set wins on the hard courts.
A convincing Fritz win is worth betting at plus-money odds.
National Bank Open predictions made at 10:10 a.m. on 08/03/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.