From inside the track at Bristol Motor Speedway, the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds take part in the 2025 Speedway Classic on Saturday night.
The pregame narrative: In a game that is set to break MLB’s regular-season attendance record, fans will be treated to an elite pitching matchup with plenty of horsepower: Spencer Strider vs. Chase Burns. Atlanta is a slight favourite in this neutral-site rubber match.
Check out my Braves vs. Reds prop bets, featuring Burns and Austin Riley.
Braves vs. Reds prop bets
Best Bet: Burns over 7.5 Ks (+105)
Burns’ opportunity to showcase his elite fastball velocity from the confines of a racetrack is just too perfect.
The No. 2 overall pick from last summer averages 98.3 mph on his heater, which ranks in the 96th percentile, per Baseball Savant. And it helps him mow down a lot of hitters.
Through 27.1 big-league innings, Burns has 45 strikeouts. That’s a 14.8 K/9 rate, which far exceeds all qualified pitchers (Dylan Cease is first at 11.6 K/9).
Burns’ strikeout efficiency might not be sustainable, but he’s accustomed to huge K counts at every level. In his junior year at Wake Forest, he fanned 191 batters in 100.0 innings (17.2 K/9).
And before making the leap to the majors, he’d posted a 12.1 K/9 in 13 minor-league starts.
Walks have been an issue at times. But some selective wildness can work in Burns’ favour when the other team doesn’t know where his 98-mph fastballs are going.
That kind of heat helps his slider play up, too, which has led to a 44.0% whiff rate on the secondary pitch.
Atlanta should be a plus matchup for Burns, given that the team has the eighth-highest K% vs. right-handed pitchers (22.5%). Furthermore, the Braves have the eighth-highest K% vs. sliders from RHPs (28.5%).
Key stat: Burns has pitched into the sixth inning in three straight starts, compiling exactly 10 Ks in each of them.
Best MLB picks
Riley under 0.5 hits (+150): Riley is one of the Braves’ best players, but I’m not confident he can take the heat on the track tonight.
Against pitches with a 98 mph velocity or above, Riley is just 2-for-22 (.091) this season. And you know Burns will be pumping upper-90s fastballs consistently against him.
Riley hasn’t fared well against sliders from RHPs, either. He’s just 10-for-57 (.175) with 20 Ks.
The third baseman is hitless in four of his past eight games. In his first look at Burns, I can definitely see him coming up empty.
Braves vs. Reds prop bets made at 1:18 p.m. ET on 08/02/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.