With eyes on a seventh consecutive win, the San Diego Padres host the St. Louis Cardinals on Saturday night.
The pregame narrative: St. Louis sends Michael McGreevy to the mound to face San Diego for a second time in seven days. The Padres torched McGreevy for seven runs over 4.2 innings last time, and they’re favoured to win the rematch.
Check out my Cardinals vs. Padres predictions, featuring Brendan Donovan and Ryan O’Hearn.
Cardinals vs. Padres predictions
Parlay: Padres ML | Donovan over 0.5 hits | O’Hearn over 1.5 bases (+370)
Padres moneyline (-148): The Padres have pushed their chips in.
General manager A.J. Preller was busy at the trade deadline, as he often is, added to the rotation, the bullpen and the heart of San Diego’s lineup.
The flurry of activity was a vote of confidence in a squad that has now won six games in a row, sitting just 3.0 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.
San Diego has looked like a dangerous team lately, posting the best ERA since the all-star break (2.68). The Padres are eighth in wRC+ in that span, too (114).
Over the same timeframe, St. Louis is 18th in ERA (4.43) and 24th in wRC+ (87).
The Cardinals have lost five of their past six games, and three of those defeats came against the Padres.
Since May 1, San Diego is 12-3 with starter Randy Vasquez on the mound.
MLB SGP legs
Donovan over 0.5 hits (-275): Donovan has been cold at the plate in the past week or so, but I still think he’s a promising choice to get a hit on Saturday night.
The left-hitting infielder will have a platoon advantage vs. Vasquez, who has allowed a .276 BA and an .833 OPS to LHHs this season.
Donovan is batting .312 with an .838 OPS vs. RHPs. He also has a hit in 70 of 102 games this year (68.6%).
According to Baseball Savant, Donovan has a .296 xBA (94th percentile).
O’Hearn over 1.5 total bases (+128): Tonight should be O’Hearn’s first start for San Diego after the team traded for him on deadline day.
What the Padres traded for is a power bat that can really punish right-handed pitching.
O’Hearn cashed this bet in each of his final four starts for Baltimore. He has a .293/.385/.488 slash line vs. RHPs this year, and all 13 of his homers have come against righties.
McGreevy, who uses all three fastball variations, throws fastballs about 65% of the time to left-hitting players. That’s good news for this prop.
O’Hearn is slugging .550 — with a .643 xSLG — against fastballs from righties.
Cardinals vs. Padres predictions made at 3:15 p.m. ET on 08/02/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.