Max Scherzer is back on the mound Saturday afternoon for the Toronto Blue Jays, as they host the Kansas City Royals.
The pregame narrative: KC won last night’s game, 9-3, marking Toronto’s fifth loss in six games. The Jays are favourites at Rogers Centre this afternoon in a matchup with a lower-than-usual projected total.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Royals for Aug. 2, featuring prop bets on Scherzer and Bobby Witt Jr.
Blue Jays best bets vs. Royals
Best bet: Witt over 0.5 runs (+100)
This price seems too good to be true for one of baseball’s brightest young stars.
Witt homered and walked twice vs. the Blue Jays last night, extending a stellar stretch of production that goes back to the beginning of July:
- .302 BA
- .890 OPS
- 21 runs
- 1+ runs in 16 of 24 games
Witt’s xBA since July 1 is .302, per Baseball Savant, and that directly aligns with his actual batting average. So he hasn’t been lucking his way into this.
His 100th-percentile sprint speed means he’s always a threat to steal a base. And his 89th-percentile xSLG (.525) means that he’s got plenty of power to go with all that speed.
Witt bats in the No. 2 spot of the Royals’ lineup, with three accomplished hitters right behind him: Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia and Salvador Perez. All three of those guys have a 119 wRC+ or better since June 1.
Max Scherzer will throw mostly four-seamers and sliders to right-hitting players, and that’s a combo that should be fine for Witt.
The star shortstop has a .302 xBA and a .574 xSLG against those pitches from righties.
Key stat: Witt has scored a run in eight of his past 10 games.
Quick pick
Scherzer under 17.5 outs (+115): I faded Scherzer’s outs total last time (15.5), and he blew it out of the water with a 7.0-inning quality start against a floundering Tigers lineup.
This line movement, combined with the price, makes me want to try taking the under again.
Scherzer has gone under this mark in five of his seven starts, averaging 5.0 IP this season. He’s had a thumb issue flare up a few times, and though he seems to be managing it fine, there’s always a risk that it resurfaces.
Also, remember that the Tigers were in a massive slump when Scherzer faced them last time out. That’s not the case with the Royals this weekend.
KC is ninth in the majors in team wRC+ over the past 30 days (110), which includes the third-highest SLG (.465).
Toronto’s bullpen is in solid shape thanks to Thursday’s off-day (and another off-day coming up on Aug. 7). There are four relievers with multiple rest days entering this matchup.
Over 8 runs (-110): Noah Cameron is having a remarkable rookie season for KC, compiling a 2.44 ERA over 14 starts.
He’ll face one of his toughest tests of the year on Saturday, though, in a road matchup against a very selective Blue Jays lineup.
Against southpaws, Toronto has the best on-base percentage in the league (.339). The Jays also have the lowest K rate (18.0%), the second-highest walk rate (10.0%) and the fourth-highest BA (.261).
I expect the Jays to really make Cameron work. This over is 7-2-1 in Toronto’s past 10 games.
In Scherzer’s starts this year, this over is 6-1. It’s just not a significant total for two offences that are clicking.
Blue Jays best bets made at 11:26 a.m. ET on 08/02/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.