Tommy Pham highlights the best MLB prop picks for the first day of August.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Pham has a dream matchup and can be had at a great price on his total bases prop, making him a slam-dunk play and my best bet tonight.
Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Friday, Aug. 1, featuring predictions on Junior Caminero, Ramon Laureano and Jack Leiter.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Pham over 1.5 total bases (-114)
Pham is on fire and his Pittsburgh Pirates are at MLB’s most hitter-friendly venue, Coors Field.
They face one of the sport’s worst starting pitchers, and the wind is expected to be blowing out. What more could you ask for?
- Pham hit .388/.446/.597 last month.
- He finished July with three consecutive multi-hit games and cleared 1.5 bases in 11 of 18 starts.
- In July, he raised his average from .228 to .273 and his OPS from .595 to .721.
- Since June 1, Pham has hit .355, slugged .555 and put up a .971 OPS.
The Colorado Rockies are starting Antonio Senzatela, who has an MLB-high 6.68 ERA (minimum 100 innings pitched).
Opponents are batting .349 off him, and only one pitcher who meets that innings threshold has a lower K rate.
It won’t just be Senzatela that Pham has the luxury of facing. Colorado’s 7.67 bullpen ERA over the last 30 days is the worst mark in MLB.
Key stat: Pham is batting .400 and has never struck out in 17 career plate appearances against Senzatela.
Best MLB picks
Caminero over 1.5 total bases (+104): Clayton Kershaw can’t be trusted at this point in his career.
Look past his respectable surface stats (3.62 ERA, 1.29 WHIP):
- Kershaw’s expected ERA is 4.13 and he’s below the 10th percentile in K rate.
- The lefty finished July with 10 strikeouts in 21 innings.
- His hard-hit rate is by far the highest of his career (Statcast started tracking in 2015).
Caminero wasn’t overly productive in July but he still hit for decent power (six homers, .444 SLG). That was his lowest slugging month of the season, though well above the MLB average.
The first-time all-star has below-average walk and strikeout rates, too, so there should be an expectation that he’ll put the ball in play.
And when he does at home, where he’ll be tonight, good things usually happen.
Caminero is batting a robust .327/.365/.627 with 17 of his 27 homers at Steinbrenner Field, the Rays’ temporary home.
Laureano over 0.5 RBI (+190): There’s no confirmation at the time of this writing if the San Diego Padres’ new outfielder will play after getting traded from the Baltimore Orioles yesterday.
Assuming he’s a go, I love him at this price.
Laureano would likely slot just behind the middle of the lineup behind a collection of thumpers, including Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr.
The Padres host the St. Louis Cardinals, who are starting left-hander Matthew Liberatore (5.58 ERA since June). Laureano hits southpaws well (.802 career OPS) and is having a fantastic season.
He’s batting .313 with a .935 OPS since the start of May.
Friday’s best pitching prop
Leiter over 4.5 Ks (-139): I played Leiter’s teammate Kumar Rocker on this line yesterday and he didn’t come through. But I like Leiter for similar reasons.
The Seattle Mariners had the fifth-highest K rate in July and have the 10th-highest mark vs. right-handers this season.
Leiter was strong in July and has completed six innings in three of his last five starts. More importantly, the Texas Rangers righty has topped this number in five straight and is 7-3 vs. this line in his last 10 outings.
One of those starts came against Seattle in June when he twirled six innings of one-hit ball with seven Ks.
Leiter has elite velocity, was a big K arm in the minors and is finding his groove after a rough first go in the majors last year.
MLB prop picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET on 08/01/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.