The red-hot Manny Machado headlines Friday’s MLB home run picks.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Machado closed out July on a monster eight-game hit streak, and has solid value to go deep off lefty Matthew Liberatore at Petco Park tonight. Elsewhere, I’m targeting Luis Robert Jr. against another struggling southpaw.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 1.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Machado to hit a home run (+350)
Machado is tearing the cover off the ball during his hitting streak.
- .529 batting average
- .824 slugging percentage
- 2 HRs, 11 RBIs
The third baseman also has zero walks and a 69% hard-hit rate (balls batted above 95 mph) in that span. For context, Kyle Schwarber leads MLB with a season-long 60% hard-hit rate.
Machado does most of his damage against lefties, too.
- He’s slugging .545 against LHP and .495 against RHP.
- Half of Machado’s 20 home runs have come agianst southpaws. He’s had 178 fewer at-bats against LHP than RHP.
Liberatore should be a perfect matchup for him to continue that trend. He’s a contact pitcher who gives up a lot of hard contact. For us, that’s a great combination.
Only 24.1% of his opponents’ at-bats end in a strikeout or walk, and he ranks in the bottom third percentile for hard-hit rate and barrel rate.
Key stat: Machado is 2-for-3 against Liberatore with a home run.
Best HR predictions
Robert to hit a home run (+480): Robert batted below the Mendoza line in April, May and June but caught fire in July.
- .353 batting average
- .549 slugging percentage
- 3 HRs
His 17% K rate in that span is well below his 28.5% season-long average, and gives me confidence he will make some solid contact against Los Angeles Angels southpaw Tyler Anderson.
Anderson (4.41 ERA) has given up nine home runs in his last eight games and only generates a ground ball on 30.8% of balls in play (sixth pecentile among MLB pitchers).
Robert is slugging .568 against lefties this year.
MLB home run picks made at 11:56 a.m. ET on 08/01/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.