The Toronto Blue Jays begin August with a three-game homestand against the Kansas City Royals.
The pregame narrative: Both teams were active during Thursday’s trade deadline, bolstering already strong rosters for a postseason push. Toronto added a pair of high-leverage relievers and is favoured to win the series opener behind Kevin Gausman, who pitches opposite Michael Wacha.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Royals for Aug. 1, featuring Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Addison Barger.
Blue Jays best bets vs. Royals
Best bet: Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+108)
Last year, Guerrero went from a good to a great bat following the all-star break. And the early results indicate we’re in for a repeat this season.
- Pre ASG: .277/.384/.434 splits, 12 HR in 94 games
- Post ASG: .407/.500/.667 spits, 3 HR in 14 games
It’s not a massive sample, but I want to ride the hot hand in what should be a getable matchup.
Wacha has stark home/away splits (2.63 ERA at home, 4.53 on the road), and ranks in the bottom-third percentiles for K rate (18.4%) and whiff rate (23.0%).
He also doesn’t walk many batters, which tells me Guerrero should be able to put bat on ball.
Guerrero is just 2-for-13 against Wacha with a pair of doubles. But he has a much better .446 xBA in those at-bats with a monster .900 xSLG.
The righty has a six-pitch mix but mainly relies on a 4-seamer/changeup combo. Guerrero — who owns a 90th percentile hard-hit rate — has hit both of those offerings well.
Key stat: Guerrero is slugging .529 SLG vs. 4-seamers and .455 against changeups from RHP this year.
Quick pick
Barger over 0.5 RBI (+143): Barger is hitting fifth behind Nathan Lukes, George Springer, Guerrero and Bo Bichette — that’s a great spot for run production.
I’ve already talked about Guerrero, so let’s look at the other three. Lukes has a .346 OBP against righties and Springer and Bichette are a combined 11-for-30 against Wacha.
Barger has never seen Wacha before, but he’s crushed righties and rakes at home.
- Vs. RHP: .277/.332/.537 slash line
- At home: .288/.346/.541 slash line
The third baseman has 10 RBI since the all-star break.
Blue Jays F5 -0.5 (-112): I think Wacha is in trouble, but don’t feel the same way about Gausman.
Toronto’s righty is finding his form at the perfect time with a 1.96 ERA across his last six starts. He has given up just five hits and one run while striking out 18 in his last two starts (13.0 IP).
And those outings were against the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees, who rank sixth and third in runs per game.
The Royals score the third-fewest runs per game (3.81), and Gausman has dominated them since joining the Blue Jays, with a 1.01 ERA in four starts.
Blue Jays best bets made at 9:26 a.m. ET on 08/01/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.