There are only two MLB games tonight, but I have three prop picks for the ultra-light slate.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Elly De La Cruz has a juicy matchup and I expect him to mash at home. I’m also backing a slumping J.P. Crawford, who has the luxury of hitting atop a suddenly stacked Seattle Mariners lineup.
Check out my best MLB prop bets for July 31, featuring a prediction on Kumar Rocker.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: De La Cruz over 1.5 total bases (-115)
Carlos Carrasco at Great American Ball Park. What could go wrong? Plenty.
Carrasco, recently acquired from the New York Yankees, is well past his best-before date and making his Atlanta Braves debut at one of the game’s most hitter-friendly venues.
Wind is expected to be blowing out at the offensive-minded park, making this a terrible spot for the veteran 38-year-old.
- Carrasco turned in a 5.91 ERA over eight appearances with the Yankees.
- He was even worse in the previous two seasons, putting up a 6.18 ERA with a sky-high home run rate and weak strikeout totals.
- Once the Cincinnati Reds knock the right-hander out of the game, the Braves will turn to a bullpen that has an MLB-worst 8.10 ERA in the second half.
As for De La Cruz, he’s worth a look in any matchup vs. a righty starter.
The all-star shortstop does most of his damage from the left side, batting .302/.394/.532 with 13 of his 18 homers vs. RHPs.
To no surprise, the dynamic 23-year-old has been especially strong at home, too.
Key stat: De La Cruz is batting .307 and slugging .500 in Cincinnati.
Best MLB picks
Rocker over 4.5 Ks (-130): Rocker turned in an 8.10 ERA over his first five starts this season, leading to his demotion.
The hyped prospect has left a lot to be desired, but he’s been better since returning in June.
Rocker has a 4.54 ERA in his past eight starts, striking out nearly a batter per inning.
He’s battled control issues and generally doesn’t work deep, so there’s some risk here at a price that’s not great. But the hard-throwing righty has upside.
- Rocker has cleared this line in five of those eight starts and was a big strikeout arm in the minors.
- When he faced the Mariners in June, he punched out six in 6.0 IP.
- Seattle has the fifth-highest strikeout rate in the second half and 10th-highest mark vs. righties this season.
The Mariners’ offence has also been anemic in the second half, posting an MLB-worst 79 wRC+, though their lineup looks much more powerful with the acquisitions of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez.
Crawford over 0.5 runs (+106): Just because I like Rocker to clear a modest K total doesn’t mean I’m betting against the Mariners.
Seattle should be able to get to him, especially if he’s handing out free passes.
And this new-and-improved lineup is rich with thumpers slotting behind their leadoff man, Crawford.
The outfielder has been abysmal this month, but he’s batting .293 with a strong .376 on-base percentage vs. righties.
If Crawford gets on base, he’ll be providing these guys with a chance to cash him in:
- Julio Rodriguez
- Cal Raleigh
- Randy Arozarena
- Naylor
- Suarez
At plus money, I’ll happily take my chances there.
MLB prop picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET on 07/31/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.